750
FXUS61 KALY 101754
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, RANGING IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH ALONG WITH RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WILL AID IN SNOW MELT, POTENTIAL RIVER
RISES, AND A SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF ICE JAMS AND MINOR FLOODING.
2) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS,
RAINFALL, AND A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
3) COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE 70S,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE DEEPEST SNOWPACK IS STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE NORTHERN BASINS HAVE SEEN
THE SNOWPACK STARTING TO COMPRESS AS MELTWATER IS BEING
ABSORBED INTO THE PACK, ALTHOUGH EVEN NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
RUNOFF THIS WEEK AS THE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO RISE.
THE CURRENT NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER (NERFC) FORECAST
HAS MINOR FLOOD STAGE REACHING ON THE MOHAWK RIVER AT DELTA DAM
AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT CAST BRIDGE. THE SACANDAGA RIVER
COULD APPROACH ACTION/MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY BASED ON
LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCES.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, THE
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RIVER RISES. IT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ICE MOVEMENT TOO IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
BUT A LOT OF RIVER ICE CONTINUES TO ROT AND MELT IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME ISOLATED ICE
JAMS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW SMALLER BASINS EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOME HYDRO
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS THE
RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RIVER
FLOODING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE RIVERS, SOME PONDING CAN BE
EXPECTED IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS THANKS TO THE RAIN, SNOW
MELT AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. COLDER WEATHER AND FROZEN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK, WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE
SNOW MELT AND THREAT FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS IN THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS COULD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT VERSUS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED IN THESE LOCATIONS TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY FIRST TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE ALSO HINTING AT
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE
STARTING TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY VERSUS
STEADIER RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AS WELL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW, BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
LOCATIONS EAST, TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 55
DEGREES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHEST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY, BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES. SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.5
INCHES. WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY,
WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND CURRENT SNOWPACK MELTING, MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 45
MPH WITH THE FRONT, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS BETWEEN 35 AND
40 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY TO LESS THAN 25 MPH. MAKE SURE TO
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS AHEAD OF THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING
DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
IN THE 20S TO 30S, WHILE CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RANGE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE, RANGING IN THE 20S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE MILD BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR BITTERLY COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS COULD RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO TEENS AND LOW 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TUESDAY TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE START OF THE COLDEST DAY THIS MONTH
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. DON'T PUT AWAY THOSE
WINTER JACKETS, HATS, AND GLOVES JUST YET AS WINTER-LIKE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND WITH BASES ABOVE
5000 FEET. A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDAY COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS TO KALB/KGFL BETWEEN
00-06Z/WED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KPSF AFTER
06Z/WED. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/WED AT
ALL SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR ALL SITES FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, MIXED
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR CALM TONIGHT. WIND WILL THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 5-10 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY (MARCH 10)
ALBANY, NY: 72 DEGREES SET IN 1977
GLENS FALLS, NY: 65 DEGREES IN 2016
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 73 DEGREES IN 2016
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...31
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page