991
FXUS61 KALY 102015
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FROM 2PM WEDNESDAY TO 2PM
THURSDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASED RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. GIVEN ICE STILL
ON RIVERS, INCREASED FLOW MAY HELP BREAK-UP ICE AND RESULT IN
ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW HAVE DECREASED A BIT NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-90 GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
STALL NEARBY, LEADING TO COLD AIR DAMMING.
INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND GUSTS 40MPH OR HIGHER BETWEEN 2AM THURS TO 2AM FRI HAS
INCREASED TO 30 TO 70% WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE
RENSSELAER PLATEAU INTO WESTERN MA BETWEEN 70 AND 80%.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AS A RESULT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW THAT WILL AID IN SNOW MELT AND RIVER RISES. THE INCREASED
FLOW IN RIVERS WILL ALSO HELP BREAK-UP ICE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING.
2) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TOMORROW INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, AND A FEW NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A 30 TO 70% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH OR EXCEED 40MPH BETWEEN 2 PM WEDNESDAY AND 2PM
THURSDAY WHICH CAN BLOW AROUND ANY UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS AND
LEAD TO DOWNED TREE BRANCHES.
3) COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A
CLIPPER DISTURBANCE LEADING TO LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
SNOWMELT. IN FACT, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR
DAY (MARCH 10) AT ALBANY, GLENS FALLS, AND POUGHKEEPSIE HAVE
BEEN BROKEN. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE NOHRSC MAPS
AND GROUND TRUTH OBSERVATIONS FROM COCORAHS AND COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER THIS MORNING AND NYS MESONET SITES SHOWING 10
TO 25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES
STILL IN THE FOOTHILLS AND IN SOUTHERN VERMONT, WESTERN MA, AND
PARTS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ELSEWHERE, SNOW HAS MELTED
EXCEPT IN LINGERING SNOW PILES OR SHADED AREAS.
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM FRONT STALLED IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS SLOWING SAGGING BACK SOUTHWARD WITH IT LIKELY
STALLING IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TONIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS (EVEN A POTENTIAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT BUT OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.25". THE
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RIVER RISES AND MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ICE
MOVEMENT WITH ISOLATED ICE JAMS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING NOT
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH TOMORROW BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR I-90 THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THIS FRONT
ADVECTING IN A COOLER AIR MASS IN COMPARISON TO TEMPERATURES
TODAY (TUESDAY). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION THAT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
OUT OF THE 40S AND 50S TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PLUS CLOUDY SKIES
WILL SLOW DOWN SNOW MELT. HOWEVER, THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS
NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND
60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS BUT STILL COOL
IN THE 40S IN SOUTHERN VT DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING) WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY, REACHING 25 - 30MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ENHANCE SNOWMELT
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, RESULTING IN HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL DIRECT A MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS 1 - 1.5"
INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON REACHING THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN THE 850 - 500 HPA LAYER
STEEPENING TO 6 - 6.5C/KM, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS.
OTHERWISE, THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH RAIN TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GIVEN THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME WITH RAINFALL RATES
DECREASING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FAVORED MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT WITH THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES RANGING FROM
0.50 TO 1.50" WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AS THE FRONT OUTRUNS THE STRONGEST FORCING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HERE GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30" IN THE 25TH
TO 75TH PERCENTILE. MOST OF THE RAIN EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
EARLY THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS PLUS SNOW MELT, THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER SHOW A FEW
RIVER FORECAST POINTS REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE WED NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. SPECIFICALLY, FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST
CANADA CREEK, THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SACANDAGA RIVER. IT WILL BE
CLOSE FOR POINTS WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER BASIN WITH NORTH
CREEK, HINCKLEY AND FORT EDWARD EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE ACTION
STAGE. THE LATEST MMEFS SHOWS NEARLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) MELTING OUT OF THE SNOWPACK WITHIN THESE
RIVER BASIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THIS WILL BE A CRUCIAL PART
OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD LESS SNOW MELT OUT, FLOODING MAY BE LESS
LIKELY AND VISE VERSA. HOW RIVER ICE MELTS/ROTS AND MOVES IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THAT CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING BUT THAT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT FAR IN ADVANCE. GIVEN EXPECTED RIVER RISES
AND POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING, WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FROM
18 UTC WED TO 18 UTC THURS FOR THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY TURN QUITE GUSTY GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND
SHARPLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS REACHING
30 TO 45MPH WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING 30 TO 70% CHANCE
FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH 2AM THURS TO 2AM FRI. THIS CAN BLOW
AROUND AN UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER ON
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR HIGHEST POINT OF THE
DAY WED NIGHT BEFORE TUMBLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S (40S MID-
HUDSON VALLEY) BY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKING LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES, LATEST
FORECAST SHOWS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN VALLEY AREAS WITH LOW AMOUNTS
OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS (ESPECIALLY
ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES) AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL FRIDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR BITTERLY COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS COULD RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO TEENS AND LOW 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TUESDAY TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE START OF THE COLDEST DAY THIS MONTH
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. DON'T PUT AWAY THOSE
WINTER JACKETS, HATS, AND GLOVES JUST YET AS WINTER-LIKE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND WITH BASES ABOVE
5000 FEET. A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDAY COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS TO KALB/KGFL BETWEEN
00-06Z/WED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KPSF AFTER
06Z/WED. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/WED AT
ALL SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR ALL SITES FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, MIXED
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR CALM TONIGHT. WIND WILL THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 5-10 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY (MARCH 10)
ALBANY, NY: 72 DEGREES SET IN 1977
GLENS FALLS, NY: 65 DEGREES IN 2016
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 73 DEGREES IN 2016
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-041>043-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31/05
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...31
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