703
FXUS61 KALY 111746
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
BASED ON THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F. IMPRESSIVE 12Z
KALY SOUNDING WITH THE DEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION!
PREVIOUS...WITH WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG INCOMING COLD FRONT,
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER,
SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW.
IN ADDITION, HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE NOW EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SNOWMELT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT OF ICE AND
ISOLATED ICE JAMS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY TODAY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, ENDING AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY REACHING
35 TO 45 MPH.
3) CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED TO JUST SOUTH OF I-90, AND SHOULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT, MAINLY IN THE 40S/50S, HOWEVER
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 60S FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
CLOSER TO I-84 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-90 TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL EXTENSIONS PASSING
SOUTH OF I-90 INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES,
WHERE 01Z/NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR > 1" ENDING 8 AM THURSDAY ARE
40-60%, WITH SIMILAR PROBS FOR >1.5" ONLY ~10-20%. FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST WHICH WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 0.50", ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR SHOULD
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER ANY LOCATIONS.
CONTINUED SNOWMELT ALONG WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY. THE RIVER RISES MAY ALSO BREAK UP LINGERING ICE
IN THESE AREAS, RESULTING IN POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. LATEST NERFC
FORECASTS INDICATE MINOR FLOODING LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY ON
THE SACANDAGA @ HOPE, THE MOHAWK RIVER @ LITTLE FALLS, WEST
CANADA CREEK @ KAST BRIDGE, AND ALSO DELTA DAM. SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THESE REGIONS, AS WELL ALONG THE HOOSIC AND
HOUSATONIC RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE. TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL AS
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH WITH COOLER
TEMPS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, OVERALL SNOWMELT AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD BE LESS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT, AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. LATEST HREF SUGGESTS MU
CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME EMBEDDED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SHARPENING AS IT APPROACHES, POSSIBLY EVEN
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS COLDER AIR BUILDS
INTO THE REGION, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS, PERHAPS A
COATING UP TO AN INCH, WITH GENERALLY A COATING ON COLDER
SURFACES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES AMID COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-45
MPH. 01Z/NBM EVEN SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES ONCE MIXING DEEPENS LATER THURSDAY MORNING, AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL
AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GREATEST/MOST PERSISTENT FORCING LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL, WITH SCATTERED LIGHTER SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. 01Z/NBM SUGGESTS 24-HR PROBS ENDING 8 AM
SUNDAY FOR >4" SNOWFALL AT 70-90%+ ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
HERKIMER, HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES, WITH SIMILAR
PROBS FOR >7" AT 30-60%. SO, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN SOME OF THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH COULD
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH FOR
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WHEN
HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY
VALLEYS WITH 20S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL FOR
THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH JUST SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND LIKELY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, BUT TOO
SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN AROUND 05Z-08Z. MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH -SHRA GRADUALLY
ENDING. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE RENEWED SCT -SHRA AT KPOU AND
-SNPL AT KPSF AFTER 12Z, AS A POTENTIAL WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
WILL MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, AS A SOUTHWEST
JET OF 45-60 KT AT 2000 FT AGL MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LLWS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-12 KT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING AT
KPSF/KALB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO 12-18 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 KT DEVELOPING AROUND OR JUST PRIOR TO 12Z
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-
041>043-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/15
AVIATION...07
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