493
FXUS61 KALY 120528
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME CHANGES WITH THE TIMING THE TRANSITION TO RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACK
FRI-FRI NIGHT.
WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW DUE TO THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW
MELT, RAINFALL AND ANY ISOLATED ICE JAMS.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, ENDING AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT,
NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES.
3) A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS 35-45 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPERS COLD FRONT SAT-SAT NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH 40S AND 50S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH A PREFRONTAL
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. PWATS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON
THE LATEST NAEFS. THE LATEST NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR > 1" OF QPF
ENDING 2 AM THU ARE 30-55% ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF INCH OVER THE REST
OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME SNOW MELT WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME ICE MAY BREAK UP
AND MOVE CAUSING A JAM IN THE NORTHERN STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE
LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE CONTINUES MINOR FLOODING FORECASTS FOR
LATE TONIGHT OR THU ON THE SACANDAGA RIVER AT HOPE, THE WEST
CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE, AND ALSO AT DELTA DAM. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE HUDSON RIVER BASIN FROM TROY NORTHWARD AND THE
METTAWEE AT GRANVILLE MAY HIT THE ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE. RIVER
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS COMING TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
MILD AIR MASS THE PAST 3-4 DAYS WILL BE GONE, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HREFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN MUCAPES IN THE 100-300 J/KG RANGE. O-6 KM
SHEAR INCREASES TO 50-65 KT. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED,
BUT DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS PWATS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IF THE PARCELS BECOME SFC
BASED ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO I-84. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR HAS A FEW
CLUSTERS OR BROKEN LINES FROM I-84 TO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE 3-KM NAM HAS A MORE
CONTINUOUS ORGANIZED LINE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NON-SEVERE BASED ON THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR THE LINE IN THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPS WILL FALL INITIALLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING. THIS WILL BE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION, AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BY SUNRISE WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH AND EAST. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES NEUTRAL-NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NORTHEAST LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, PERHAPS EVEN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN STEADY. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WITH LESS AMOUNTS
NORTH AND WEST, THOUGH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS. THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS WITH INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 12-25
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40 MPH. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS 40-45 MPH OR SO OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY/NORTHERN
TACONICS/CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES. THE COVERAGE AREA FOR WIND
GUSTS 46-57 MPH IS SMALL, SO NO WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME
UNLESS WIDESPREAD GUSTS LOOK ACHIEVABLE WITH DEEPER MIXING.
TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN
THE MAJOR VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A CLIPPER LOW AND ITS WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME SNOW BACK INTO THE
REGION FRI LATE MORNING INTO FRI NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST NAM INDICATES 24-HR
PROBABILITIES >4" OF SNOW BY 2 PM SAT ARE 40-80% OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AND THE >6" PROBABILITIES ARE 35-60% FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR EVEN A LOW GRADE WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OR SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SNOWFALL COULD IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS FRI
PM-FRI NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AFTER
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME 20S IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
THE CLIPPERS COLD FRONT ON SAT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION ADVECTION AS THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE 15-25
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 35-45 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THE NBM/NBM 90TH
PERCENTILES WINDS AND GUST WERE BLENDED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
A BRIEF MILD SPELL OF WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL PLUNGE 10-15+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID-WINTER TUE-WED
NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT THE 20S TO LOWER
30S ON TUE BASED ON THE LATEST WPC DAYS 4-7 GUIDANCE IN OUR
FORECAST WITH LOWS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...AS OF 1:25 AM EDT, FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT
ALB/PSF, AND IFR AT POU (RAIN) AND LIFR AT GFL (FOG). THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, FOG/MIST AT GFL AND SHOWERS AT POU, HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL PERSIST. FOR ALB/PSF, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ASIDE
FROM ANY SHOWERS WHERE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 8-
11Z, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. AS WINDS
INCREASE, THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/MIST AT GFL AS WELL. SHOWERS
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS,
EXCEPT AT PSF WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALB/GFL. AT POU/PSF, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS. TIMING LOOKS TO BE 18-22Z. LOW-END MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, AND IF MORE SNOW MIXES IN THEN VSBYS COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT PSF. OTHERWISE, THOUGH,
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AT
BOTH TERMINALS.
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH, VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ESPECIALLY AT
ALB/PSF. WINDS ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10-20
KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 KT POSSIBLE, STRONGEST AT ALB/PSF. WESTERLY
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY (GUSTS UP TO 35 KT REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT ALB/PSF THROUGH THIS EVENING). THEN, AFTER SUNSET, WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT, EXCEPT AT PSF WHERE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
LLJ AS STRONG AS 50-60 KT, INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT TURNING
TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-
041>043-082-083.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
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