166
FXUS61 KALY 191735
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 10:10 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE WAS MADE TO ADD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS
THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN VT, AND THE BERKSHIRES WHERE
RADAR AND ASOS OBS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. STILL
ONLY EXPECTING UP TO A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS, SO
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PARADE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED, SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS, AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILST AN ANOMALOUS, SOUTHERN STREAM, UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDS AND PERSISTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, A TROUGH TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH TWO PRIMARY OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OF THESE COMES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WE WILL NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT PRIOR TO THESE SYSTEMS,
THERE ARE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS THIS IS
A RATHER DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT, MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE UPSLOPE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND HELP TO
OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. THAT SAID, A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS
COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY, AND CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HERE,
MILDER TEMPERATURES IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL FORCE A PRECIPITATION TYPE OF RAIN WHILE COOLER, HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
MUCH BETTER FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. AN ALREADY COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT REACHES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A DEEPENING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE GREAT LAKES. STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALIGN WELL WITH A ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS AT 850HPA
NOTED JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BAROCLINIC FRONT, FURTHER
ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT. THESE FEATURES WILL ADDITIONALLY
INTERSECT A 50-55KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT 850HPA THAT WILL
ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AID IN OVERCOMING AN INITIAL
LOW-LEVEL DRY LAYER. A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
WITH RATES BECOMING LOCALLY MODERATE AT TIMES DUE TO THE POTENT
FORCING OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN
PRIMARILY AS SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES
BE BELOW FREEZING AT ONSET. HOWEVER, AS THE SHIELD DRIFTS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVES
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S, RAIN WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS WILL EVEN BECOME TRUE FOR
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO HOW EARLY PRECIPITATION BEGINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE MORNING COMMUTE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF ALBANY COULD ULTIMATELY BE A BIT SLICK DUE TO THE INITIAL
ONSET OF SNOW.
RAIN FROM FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES DROP. BUT, BY SATURDAY,
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. THIS TIME, A FAIRLY BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION,
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, LEADING TO A WET START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THEIR
LOCATIONS RESULTING FROM THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AS IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD PLACE US ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
BRING MORE RAIN. HOWEVER, A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
WOULD FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION LEADING TO MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/FRI. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND WARM FRONT PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, A FEW LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS/CIGS TO KGFL,
KALB AND KPSF BETWEEN 00-06Z/FRI WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED.
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED AT KPOU AS ACTIVITY THERE MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED. THEREAFTER, PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN THE
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THROUGH
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, MAINLY AT KPOU,
SHOULD SKIES FULLY CLEAR AND LIGHT RAIN OCCUR THIS EVENING. A
GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AFTER
12Z/FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, WILL NEAR KGFL/KALB
TOWARD 18Z/FRI WHERE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION WILL START AFTER 18Z/FRI AT KPSF/KPOU.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/35
AVIATION...33
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