056
FXUS61 KALY 210618
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
218 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HAS DIMINISHED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WE
RETOOLED THE POPS BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS, AND HAVE GONE
MAINLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE ALSO INCREASED THE SKYCOVER
OVERNIGHT AND ADDED MORE PATCHY FOG OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BETWEEN 2-6 AM EDT WITH THE WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUR FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SNOWFALL. OUR SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW
IMPACTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...LATEST RADAR SCANS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURRING, WITH LIGHT WET SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH LATEST SURFACE TRENDS TO OUR WEST SUPPORTING A FASTER END
TO PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR HERE HAS INCREASED WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. PRIMARILY ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET,
COULD OBSERVE THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE ELEVATIONS
BELOW COULD OBSERVE THE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION. PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD SEE LIMITED IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
MORNING DROP INTO THE 20S. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS ON TRACK
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM, PLEASE READ BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE DRY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER THAT WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONTAIN ITS FAIR SHARE OF
UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE.
SIMILARLY TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT, TRACKING ORIGINALLY FROM
THE UPPER-MIDWEST. DISSIMILARLY, THIS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF SEVERAL
LOW CENTERS SPANNING A BROAD SWATH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND WEST AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG AN
ELONGATED COLD FRONT. BY THE TIME THE LOW ADJACENT TO OUR AREA
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL AND FAIRLY COMPACT WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AND THE FURTHER DEEPENED SHORTWAVE OF THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS WILL
CREATE A FAIRLY COMPACT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THAT, AT
THIS POINT, LOOKS TO SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SUBSEQUENTLY AN INITIAL ONSET TYPE OF SNOW ALMOST EVERYWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH, MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN RAIN WOULD
BE THE SOLUTION FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD MEAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST ERRS ON THE
SIDE OF THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE LOW TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH,
BUT THAT IS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WHAT'S IMPORTANT
TO NOTE HERE, THOUGH, IS THAT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DIURNAL MODERATION OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY, SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND PLAIN RAIN UNTIL SNOW RETURNS AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. WE
DON'T ANTICIPATE, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME, ANY FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE
POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTING DURATION AND SPATIAL
SPREAD OF SNOW POSES UNCERTAINTY IN THE RESULTING ACCUMULATIONS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS AND PROVIDE
UPDATES/ISSUE ANY HEADLINES SHOULD THEY BE NEEDED.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN TO FORCE THE
RETURN OF REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER GFL, PSF, AND POU FOR BOTH
VIS AND CIG IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS THAT FELL THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALB. THESE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE TERMINALS, RESULTING
IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP MIX OUT FOG. HOWEVER,
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 15-18 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS
BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING DEVELOPS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CEILINGS AT
ALB, POU AND GFL ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO LINGER AT PSF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED
WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN BY
11 - 14 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS BECOMING SUSTAINED 8-12KTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 15-20KTS BEFORE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITONS SHOULD RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
OUR NEXT WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. SHOW A PROB30 GROUP FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR ARRIVING AT GFL, ALB AND PSF TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW
SHOWERS REACH WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT GFL
AND LESS CERTAINTY AND ALB AND PSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/05/12
AVIATION...31
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