779
FXUS61 KALY 210644
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW/WINTRY MIX TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.
2) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING SETTLES
IN. HOWEVER, NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW TO OCCUR, HOWEVER THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS, AS SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE AND GFS SUGGEST HIGHER QPF AND
OVERALL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT. 01Z/NBM 24-HOUR PROBS
FOR >2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ENDING 2 PM SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY
20-40% ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH SIMILAR PROBS FOR >4" AT
10-20%.
CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THESE
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 4" FOR SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL, AS AREAS IMMEDIATELY
NORTH AND EAST OF THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. A TRACK DIFFERENCE OF 20-40 MILES WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN
IMPACTS WHERE SNOW OCCURS WOULD BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEFORE SETTLING BACK SOUTHWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP CLOSER TO I-90 IN PA AND TRACK EASTWARD LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VERY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH COLDER AIR SLOWLY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS COLDER AIR REACHES, AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPANDS TO WILL DETERMINE IF
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND/OR A BAND OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS.
THIS POTENTIAL, ALBEIT SMALL, IS GREATEST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-90. 01Z/NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >2" SNOWFALL ENDING 8 PM MONDAY
FOR THESE AREAS IS 10-20%, GREATEST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS, AS
A BURST OF SNOW/WINTRY MIX COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR THE MON AM
COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S/40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION,
FAVORING RAIN IN VALLEY AREAS AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER GFL, PSF, AND POU FOR BOTH
VIS AND CIG IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS THAT FELL THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALB. THESE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE TERMINALS, RESULTING
IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP MIX OUT FOG. HOWEVER,
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 15-18 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS
BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING DEVELOPS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CEILINGS AT
ALB, POU AND GFL ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO LINGER AT PSF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED
WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN BY
11 - 14 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS BECOMING SUSTAINED 8-12KTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 15-20KTS BEFORE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITONS SHOULD RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
OUR NEXT WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. SHOW A PROB30 GROUP FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR ARRIVING AT GFL, ALB AND PSF TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW
SHOWERS REACH WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT GFL
AND LESS CERTAINTY AND ALB AND PSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...31
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