025
FXUS61 KALY 220602
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SKY COVER FOR REST OF TODAY
DUE TO STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AROUND.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR FOR NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME DRIZZLE
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AS STEADY PRECIP ENDS WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN
AREAS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS WILL
GENERALLY BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS DUE TO
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES.
2) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY, ALTHOUGH
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE SEEN MORE BREAKS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WITH NYS MESONET STILL
SHOWING MANY SPOTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR TONIGHT, A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONLY NORTHERN AREAS (FROM I-90 NORTHWARD) WILL BE
SEEING PRECIP FOR OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST OF THIS ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPS SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS (SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION), AS SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
RAINFALL. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS LOOK TO PICK UP TO 1-3" OF SNOW FROM THIS AND EVEN VALLEY
AREAS AROUND GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA MAY SEE A COATING TO AN
INCH OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS GENERALLY A 20-50%
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 4" FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, WITH THE
ONLY 50% CHANCES ON TOP OF GORE MOUNTAIN NY AND STRATTON
MOUNTAIN VT. MOST VALLEY AREAS HAVE A RATHER LOW CHANCE (UNDER
10%) FOR ACCUMULATION TO REACH 4", EVEN FOR NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS. BASED ON THIS, WON'T BE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES, AS IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED TO JUST THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
AND MOST TRAVEL WON'T BE AFFECTED BY THIS SNOWFALL.
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, TEMPS WILL BE WARMER, BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO
PLAIN RAIN, EVEN FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE TRACKING RIGHT OVER NORTHERN AREAS,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL BE WITHIN THE STORM'S WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD WARM UP
INTO THE 50S, WITH EVEN SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS AHEAD OF THE STORM'S COLD FRONT, WITH EVEN SOME MODERATE
BURST POSSIBLE. STILL, TOTAL QPF WON'T BE OVERLY HEAVY, WITH
MOST SPOTS SEEING AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. WHILE THIS WILL
MAKE FOR SOME PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND
RIVERS WILL STAY WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD, SOME DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING
IN ALOFT FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS, ALTHOUGH MOST PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THIS IDEA
AND SHOWS THE DRIER AIR COMING IN FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL STILL
INCLUDE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW BASED OFF THE LATEST NBM,
ALTHOUGH THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE STEADY
PRECIP LOOKS TO END, SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. PRECIP WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
RETURN TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
START THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY WITH PLENTY OF 20S EARLY IN THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOL
WEATHER, IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY TO START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE TOWARDS MIDWEEK AND WILL BE
A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER MAY RETURN SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT, IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS DESPITE AN INCOMING WARM FRONT LEADING TO SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR SEEN IN THE 12 UTC ALY SOUNDING IS LIMITING THESE SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ONLY SHOW A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VIS AT GFL FROM 6 - 10 UTC WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALB, PSF AND POU WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN
9-10 KFT. SOUTHEAST WINDS TURN GUSTY BY 12 UTC WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 8-12KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM 13 TO 17
UTC AND WE SHOW TEMPO GROUPS AT GFL, ALB, AND PSF FOR MVFR
VIS/CIGS BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN THAT PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. MVFR VIS/CIGS PREVAIL ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES BY 16
TO 18 UTC AT ALB/GFL/PSF WITH POU REMAINING DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO
21 UTC. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
STEADY AFTERNOON WHICH WE SHOW IN PROB30 GROUPS. MOST OF THE
RAIN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC AND WHILE GFL/ALB SHOULD TREND
BACK TO VFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER, IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO LINGER AT
PSF/POU THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ONCE THE RAIN ENDS SUSTAINED 5-10KTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 15-20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...31
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