639
FXUS61 KALY 221107
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
707 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS HAVE DECREASED. STRONGER WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN AREAS
FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS WILL
GENERALLY BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS DUE TO
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES.
2) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING FOR AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. P-TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW, THOUGH AS WARMER
AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND
PERHAPS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO
AND SOUTH OF I-90, A FEW PASSING SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-3" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT, WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF I-
90 LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SINKING BACK SOUTHWARD.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS PA WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NJ AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
BE SINKING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW TRACK, AND ALLOW RAIN
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY A COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH MAINLY
ON COLDER SURFACES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) THAT A FEW
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP CLOSER TO, OR
JUST SOUTH OF I-90 AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD WHILE ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUDS DECREASE.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MONDAY,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ENHANCED CLOSE TO I-90
WHERE SOME ADDED MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE PROCESSES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
NEARBY HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MAY
OCCUR BEFORE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
START THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY WITH PLENTY OF 20S EARLY IN THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOL
WEATHER, IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY TO START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE TOWARDS MIDWEEK AND WILL BE
A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
AS A RESULT, IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/MON...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING
BECOMING SUSTAINED 8 TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY 15 UTC.
SHOWERS FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPILL EASTWARD OVER ALB, PSF
AND GFL FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING FROM 13 TO 16 UTC LEADING TO
MVFR CIGS AT GFL AND MVFR CIGS AT PSF PERSISTING. SHOWERS REMAIN
NORTH OF POU THIS MORNING MAINTAINING VFR FLYING CONDITIONS.
THEN, THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN THAT PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MVFR VIS/CIGS PREVAIL ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES BY 17 TO
18 UTC AT ALB/GFL/PSF WITH POU REMAINING DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO
21-22 UTC. WHILE RAIN TURNS STEADY, LESS CONFIDENT ON IFR VIS AT
THIS POINT. THE RAIN EXITS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH GFL AND
THEN ALB/PSF BY 00 TO 03 UTC WITH RAIN CONTINUING AT POU
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GFL SHOULD TREND BACK TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BUT LESS CONFIDENT AT ALB AND PSF
WHERE MVFR VIS MAY LINGER FROM PATCHY DRIZZLE. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTH- NORTHWEST ONCE THE RAIN ENDS TONIGHT SUSTAINED
5-10KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS THROUGH 12 UTC.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...31
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