466
FXUS61 KALY 221758
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STEADY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MANY
AREAS. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY, HAVE TRENDED QPF UP FOR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH TOTAL QPF AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN TONIGHT, JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER TO ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
DRIZZLE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN, TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED.
SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD, BUT LATEST TEMPS FORECAST HAS MOST AREAS ABOVE
FREEZING, SO LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
WITH SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE SLICK CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
2) AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH ONLY
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS
NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION, STEADY RAINFALL HAS
RETURNED TO THE ENTIRE REGION. SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE, SO PRECIP IS JUST PLAIN RAIN. WHILE THE ADIRONDACKS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S, EVERYWHERE ELSE HAS RISEN INTO THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. BANDS OF LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME MODERATE BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY LOOKS A LITTLE WORSE THAN REALITY DUE TO
SOME BRIGHT BANDING ALOFT. STILL, NYS MESONET IS SHOWING RATES
UP TO 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR, SO SOME PONDING IS EXPECTED. AT THIS
POINT, HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN OUR AREA BASED OFF THE
LATEST NBM, ALTHOUGH SOME STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED EARLIER TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST, THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL
SHUT OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE LATE NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH MAY LINGER
THE PRECIP FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. BASED ON THIS, HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR QPF FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH AROUND 0.75" TOTAL FOR FAR MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PRECIP TO END AS
SOME WET SNOW. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS FOR LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE
WAVE ON THE FRONT ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO LINGER FOR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A COATING TO HALF INCH. SOME
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WHILE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, BUT IMPACTS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH PRECIP ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THERE COULD BE A FEW
PASSING INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
FLAKES IN THE AIR WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
LIMITED AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AS SOME
CLEARING OCCURS. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN,
TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 40S.
MODERATION WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VALLEY AREAS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND TOTAL PRECIP WON'T BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE MAY BE A COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY), BUT AGAIN,
PRECIP DOESN'T LOOK ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AND P-TYPE
WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR AND IFR START THE TAF
PERIOD DUE TO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
TIMEFRAME BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR DRIZZLE TO OCCUR, WHICH HAS BEEN
MENTIONED IN PROB30 GROUPS, IS FOR KGFL AND KALB. OTHERWISE, MVFR
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN BETWEEN 23/12Z AND 23/18Z. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BREEZY AT KALB, KGFL, AND KPSF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND
15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...05
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