041
FXUS61 KALY 230549
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 900 PM EDT, PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD, PRECIPITATION MAY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE
ENDING, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
AIR TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING AND MILD ROAD
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, SOME ELEVATED SURFACES OR SIDEWALKS
COULD BECOME SLIPPERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO TEMPERATURES, POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT TO MATCH ONGOING TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED POPS A BIT ON
MONDAY FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
WITH SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE SLICK CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
2) AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH ONLY
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS
NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION, STEADY RAINFALL HAS
RETURNED TO THE ENTIRE REGION. SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE, SO PRECIP IS JUST PLAIN RAIN. WHILE THE ADIRONDACKS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S, EVERYWHERE ELSE HAS RISEN INTO THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. BANDS OF LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME MODERATE BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY LOOKS A LITTLE WORSE THAN REALITY DUE TO
SOME BRIGHT BANDING ALOFT. STILL, NYS MESONET IS SHOWING RATES
UP TO 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR, SO SOME PONDING IS EXPECTED. AT THIS
POINT, HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN OUR AREA BASED OFF THE
LATEST NBM, ALTHOUGH SOME STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED EARLIER TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST, THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL
SHUT OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE LATE NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH MAY LINGER
THE PRECIP FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. BASED ON THIS, HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR QPF FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH AROUND 0.75" TOTAL FOR FAR MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PRECIP TO END AS
SOME WET SNOW. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS FOR LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE
WAVE ON THE FRONT ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO LINGER FOR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A COATING TO HALF INCH. SOME
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WHILE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, BUT IMPACTS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH PRECIP ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THERE COULD BE A FEW
PASSING INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
FLAKES IN THE AIR WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
LIMITED AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AS SOME
CLEARING OCCURS. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN,
TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 40S.
MODERATION WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VALLEY AREAS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND TOTAL PRECIP WON'T BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE MAY BE A COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY), BUT AGAIN,
PRECIP DOESN'T LOOK ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AND P-TYPE
WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/TUE...A BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED BETWEEN ALB AND
POU TONIGHT WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TRACKING
THROUGH POU AND PSF RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS/VIS. WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS FUNNELING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD, RAIN AT PSF MAY MIX WITH
SLEET PELLETS AND/OR SNOW FROM 09 - 12 UTC. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR WINTRY MIX, INCLUDED IN A PROB30 GROUP. WHILE
THE STEADIEST RAIN EXITS BY 12-13 UTC, EXPECTING PATCHY
SHOWERS/MIST TO LINGER AT PSF AND POU BEFORE YET ANOTHER AREA
OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER PSF/POU, EVEN EXTENDING TO
ALB. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAINTAINING COLD AIR ADVECTION,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING AND SHOULD SUPPORT IFR CIGS/VIS
FROM SNOW AT PSF/ALB/POU BETWEEN 14 AND 18 UTC. GFL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION AND REMAIN VFR.
STEADY PRECIPITATION FINALLY EXITS BY 18-19 UTC FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT ALB/PSF/POU THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS LEADING TO POTENTIAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. BY 03 - 06
UTC, SNOW SHOWERS EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLYING CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AT GFL/ALB/POU. PSF IS THE EXCEPTION WITH
MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SUSTAINED 6-12KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/33
AVIATION...31
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