915
FXUS61 KALY 231029
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS STRONGER,
WITH LIKELY SHOWERS POTENTIALLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
IN SOME (MAINLY HIGH ELEVATIONS SPOTS) BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
SLIPPERY SPOTS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH
SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
2) A WARM FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD END
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN SOME
AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP SHIELD HAS SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AS OF 230 AM, WHILE OBS INDICATE COLDER AIR
CHANNELING SOUTH DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPERTURES ARE STILL
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DROP EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SO WHILE MAINLY RAIN IS
OCCURRING, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SLEET AND/OR SNOW IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN THESE AREAS. A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY EVEN OCCUR MAINLY IN THE E. CATSKILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCE
IF NEEDED FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 7-8 AM. THEN, AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN WITH HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING,
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED. STILL, THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
SLIPPERY SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SNOW IS FAVORED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS
EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK, SOME MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE
RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID 30S, IMPACTS ON ROADS SHOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH A COATING
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. HOWEVER, BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD BE A NUISANCE DURING THE P.M. COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING WED NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE
COULD GET INTO A BRIEF WARM-SECTOR ON THU, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO
TREND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD ALSO RESULT IN
GREATER QPF. LATEST NBM 24-HR PROBS FOR > 0.25" QPF ARE 40-60%
ENDING 8 AM FRI. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE/FRONT, PRECIP COULD END AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS(MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN).
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/TUE...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLD AIR
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING BOUNDARY AS
RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF POU/PSF.
PATCHY SHOWERS/MIST MAY LINGER AT PSF AND POU THROUGH 15 UTC
BEFORE YET ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
SITES. STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION SO ONLY INCLUDED IN PROB30
GROUPS FROM 14 TO 18 UTC. GIVEN COLDER AIR IN PLACE, SHOW
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MVFR VIS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT ALB AND GFL THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
ANY STEADY PRECIPITATION THAT REDEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDDAY BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER
AND TRACK SOUTH AND EASTWARD BETWEEN 18 AND 01 UTC. ALL
TERMINALS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT GFL
AND ALB WHERE WE INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR VIS/CIGS FROM
SNOW SHOWERS. MILDER TEMPERATURES AT POU SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS MAY WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH PSF BUT STILL SHOW IFR VIS/CIGS IN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BY 01 - 03 UTC,
SNOW SHOWERS EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLYING CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AT GFL/ALB/POU. MVFR CIGS LINGER AT PSF
THROUGH 08-09 UTC BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY
WINDS REMAIN SUSTAINED 6-12KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...31
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