070
FXUS61 KALY 231711
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS STRONGER,
WITH LIKELY SHOWERS POTENTIALLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
IN SOME (MAINLY HIGH ELEVATIONS SPOTS) BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
SLIPPERY SPOTS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH
SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
2) A WARM FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD END
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN SOME
AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP SHIELD HAS SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AS OF 230 AM, WHILE OBS INDICATE COLDER AIR
CHANNELING SOUTH DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPERTURES ARE STILL
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DROP EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SO WHILE MAINLY RAIN IS
OCCURRING, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SLEET AND/OR SNOW IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN THESE AREAS. A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY EVEN OCCUR MAINLY IN THE E. CATSKILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCE
IF NEEDED FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 7-8 AM. THEN, AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN WITH HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING,
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED. STILL, THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
SLIPPERY SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SNOW IS FAVORED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS
EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK, SOME MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE
RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID 30S, IMPACTS ON ROADS SHOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH A COATING
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. HOWEVER, BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD BE A NUISANCE DURING THE P.M. COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING WED NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE
COULD GET INTO A BRIEF WARM-SECTOR ON THU, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO
TREND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD ALSO RESULT IN
GREATER QPF. LATEST NBM 24-HR PROBS FOR > 0.25" QPF ARE 40-60%
ENDING 8 AM FRI. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE/FRONT, PRECIP COULD END AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS(MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN).
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF MVFR AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS OF
1:05 PM EDT. IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS COULD LINGER FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD AT POU/PSF, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO
LOW-END MVFR AFTER THAT. THEN, ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR
CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED AS WELL,
BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. THEN, THIS EVENING, AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WITHIN THIS ARE OF SNOW SHOWERS, IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT ALB, BUT EXPECTING SOME
IFR VSBYS AT GFL AS WELL. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FIRST IMPACT
GFL/ALB, THEN TRACK SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS POU/PSF. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON IF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TOP REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT
POU/PSF, SO HAVE KEPT MVFR VSBYS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED THERE.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BETWEEN 01-03Z THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. ONCE THIS HAPPENS, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN MID-
LEVEL CIGS AT ALB/GFL/POU. AT PSF, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT PSF TOO SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NE AT ALB/GFL AND N/NW AT POU/PSF AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN SWITCH TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
AT PSF. WINDS TOMORROW EARLY TO MID-MORNING DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 5-
10 KT AND NUDGE MORE WESTERLY AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...35
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