268
FXUS61 KALY 231752
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ITERATION. THE
PRIMARY DEVIATION FROM THE NBM OCCURRED WITH POPS THROUGH THIS
EVENING TO CAPTURE SOME LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ALL ELSE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, POTENTIALLY ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT THROUGH WEAK MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE, WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (OR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE MILD) ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WARMER GROUND SURFACES SHOULD ENSURE LITTLE, IF ANY, ACCUMULATION
AND THEREFORE MITIGATE ANY THREAT OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE. AMPLE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL ALSO ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE,
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SWIFTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND HELPING TO SCATTER OUT
LASTING CLOUD COVERAGE. LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, BUT AS THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM WITH ALREADY
LIMITED MOISTURE, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND IS VERY LOW.
THE DOMINATING ANTICYCLONE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY, GIVING WAY TO AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE LOW SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS A
WARM FRONT EASTWARD. SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A BRIEF BREAK COMES THURSDAY MORNING. BUT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, A STRONGER LOW WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A COLD FRONT IN ATTENDANCE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
AS THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE BY. RAIN LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM ABOUT 40-60% FOR AT LEAST 0.25" THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS LUCKILY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
CONCERNS FOR HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. IN FACT, THE LATEST NAEFS
HARDLY SHOWS ANY RIVER RESPONSE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BUT,
AS THIS IS OUR PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT SEEN DAYS, WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS TO ENSURE THAT DOESN'T CHANGE.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION TO GIVE US A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT GENERALLY IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF MVFR AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS OF
1:05 PM EDT. IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS COULD LINGER FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD AT POU/PSF, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO
LOW-END MVFR AFTER THAT. THEN, ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR
CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED AS WELL,
BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. THEN, THIS EVENING, AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WITHIN THIS ARE OF SNOW SHOWERS, IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT ALB, BUT EXPECTING SOME
IFR VSBYS AT GFL AS WELL. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FIRST IMPACT
GFL/ALB, THEN TRACK SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS POU/PSF. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON IF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TOP REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT
POU/PSF, SO HAVE KEPT MVFR VSBYS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED THERE.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BETWEEN 01-03Z THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. ONCE THIS HAPPENS, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN MID-
LEVEL CIGS AT ALB/GFL/POU. AT PSF, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT PSF TOO SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NE AT ALB/GFL AND N/NW AT POU/PSF AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN SWITCH TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
AT PSF. WINDS TOMORROW EARLY TO MID-MORNING DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 5-
10 KT AND NUDGE MORE WESTERLY AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...35
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