334
FXUS61 KALY 241041
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT COLD AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN WET SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT BEFORE ENDING EARLY FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW, OUR
ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING
FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN VT. THEN, INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTHEASTWARD
WITH A 50 TO 90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60F ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN VT AND
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER, THE WARM-UP IS SHORT-LIVED
AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 0.25" OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) IN THE 24 HR
PERIOD ENDING 8AM FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STREAMING INTO EASTERN
NY THURSDAY NIGHT, THUNDER WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE, A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LIKELY RESULTS IN A
QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS LINGER ONCE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN WILL DETERMINE IF SHOWERS CAN MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE
TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES, LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
ONLY A 5 TO 15% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.5" OF SNOW LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS SHOWS EVEN IF
THERE IS A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY, SLIPPERY TRAVEL
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN
PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 15 KFT AGL WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST AROUND 3-7 KT,
BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...07
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