249
FXUS61 KALY 242243
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM WERE MADE WITH THIS
ITERATION OF THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPACTFUL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE CHILLIER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST HAS MADE FOR TRANQUIL,
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVERNIGHT,
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA AND MAINTAINING PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ISOLATED HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK, THOUGH PROGRESSIVE, SHORTWAVE AND SLOW COLD
FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH. ANY SNOW THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE
GROUND WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST, AND
WITH THESE LIMITED TO HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, NO
IMPACTS WILL BE POSED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SCOUR OUT BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST, THE COOL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVERHEAD, AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO ANOTHER DAY OF
SEASONABLE, BENIGN WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER IN COMPARISON TO TODAY, THOUGH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL
THEREFORE BE LARGELY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER
30S AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000FT AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S IN
ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE LOWER MID-HUSON VALLEY.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK, PRE-
FRONTAL WAVE SLIDES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS INITIAL BATCH WILL BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, BUT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. LOWS IN THE 30S WILL
MAKE FOR A PRECIPITATION TYPE OF RAIN, SNOW, OR A MIX THEREOF
BUT NO ICE IS EXPECTED AND WARM ANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EVEN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THIS INITIAL WAVE WILL DEPART BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
A COLD FRONT. SINCE WE WILL BE IN A PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR THURSDAY
PRIOR TO THE START OF THE RAIN WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH VALUES ANTICIPATED TO
SPAN THE 50S AND 60S. THAT SAID, IT WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ON
THURSDAY, SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST,
LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF
POCKETS OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG OMEGA
INTERSECTING MOIST, WARM CLOUD LAYERS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
EFFICIENCY AND LEAD TO EMBEDDED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW MAY EVEN
ROB THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY OF SOME MOISTURE
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.15" TO ~0.7". BECAUSE THIS WILL FALL
OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING, NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS, THERE IS A
LESS THAN 30% CHANCE THAT ALMOST ALL OF OUR RIVERS REMAIN BELOW
ACTION STAGE.
SOME OF THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING COULD
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY DROPS
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, AS BEFORE, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR A POTENTIAL
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEREFORE TURN COOLER AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS, BROKEN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5-10 KTS, BUT THESE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND 4-6 KFT WILL BE AROUND TOO, MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTH, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page