979
FXUS61 KALY 251749
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM WERE MADE WITH THIS
ITERATION OF THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER THAN NORMAL TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
IT THEN STALLS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY GIVEN RATHER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR BUILDS INTO
MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY SHOWING
A 50 TO 90% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES,
HIGHEST IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
TO EXCEED 70. WHILE MUCH OF THE DAY REMAINS CLOUDY AND MILD,
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AS A COLD
FRONT LATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTS IN HEIGHT FALLS COINCIDE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING
AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, EXPECTING A FOCUSED AREA OF STEADY RAIN TO
TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY A.M. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS INTO WESTERN
NY WITH 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO 5.5-6C/KM
NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90 BUT GIVEN OVERNIGHT TIMING, CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER REMAINS LOW AND IS AGAIN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH, SFC WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THURS NIGHT.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS AS 925 - 850HPA TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING BUT LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST
0.1" OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH VALUES
NOW RANGING 30 TO 40% IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS, SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY, NORTHERN TACONICS,
NORTHERN CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS, AND PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW
REMAIN UNDER 10% SO ANY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THURS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY A.M WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTFUL. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL ALSO NOT RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS AS THERE IS
ONLY A 30 TO 40% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.50" BETWEEN 2PM
THURS AND 2PM FRI. THEN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TO TREND COLDER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY INTO ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WED...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 18Z/THU FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE AND A FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO LOCATIONS
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF KALB OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WE USED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KGFL 09-13Z/THU AND 10-14Z/THU FOR KPSF WITH
LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 3.5 KFT AGL. KPOU/KALB MAY STAY DRY WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO 3.5-5 KFT AGL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME
LOWER STRATUS IMPACTS KPOU BETWEEN 09-14Z/THU IN THE MVFR RANGE.
THE CIGS MAY BEGIN TO RISE BRIEFLY AFTER 14Z/THU WITH SCT-BKN
STRATUS 3.5-6 KFT AGL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES AFTER
18Z/THU.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 6-12 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE
SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TO 5 KT OR LESS AT KGFL/KPOU EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS 30-35 KT. LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT
THESE TWO TAF SITES. KALB SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WIND 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT. KPSF MAY SEE THE WINDS
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT, AND LLWS WAS ADDED AFTER 08Z/THU UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING. EXPECT LLWS TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z-14Z/THU WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...15
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