661
FXUS61 KALY 251903
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
303 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TWO WEAK PASSAGE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY AND TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODEL DATA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREENS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OUR NEXT MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED TO START WITH PERIODS OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES. WITH THESE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WE ARE
CONFIDENT FOR NO FLOODING IMPACTS TO OCCUR WITH THIS FIRST
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
FOR THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED BY LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES FOR THE PATTERN TO BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF DAILY PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE RAINFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL INFLUENCE IF PRECIPITATION MIXES
WITH SNOW. THERE'S SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES ON
EXACT AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY NEXT WEEK INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. AT THIS FORECAST TIME, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL GUIDANCES HINTING AT RAIN POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WED...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 18Z/THU FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE AND A FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO LOCATIONS
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF KALB OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WE USED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KGFL 09-13Z/THU AND 10-14Z/THU FOR KPSF WITH
LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 3.5 KFT AGL. KPOU/KALB MAY STAY DRY WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO 3.5-5 KFT AGL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME
LOWER STRATUS IMPACTS KPOU BETWEEN 09-14Z/THU IN THE MVFR RANGE.
THE CIGS MAY BEGIN TO RISE BRIEFLY AFTER 14Z/THU WITH SCT-BKN
STRATUS 3.5-6 KFT AGL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES AFTER
18Z/THU.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 6-12 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE
SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TO 5 KT OR LESS AT KGFL/KPOU EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS 30-35 KT. LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT
THESE TWO TAF SITES. KALB SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WIND 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT. KPSF MAY SEE THE WINDS
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT, AND LLWS WAS ADDED AFTER 08Z/THU UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING. EXPECT LLWS TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z-14Z/THU WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page