742
FXUS61 KALY 252341
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TWO WEAK PASSAGE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY AND TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODEL DATA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREENS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OUR NEXT MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED TO START WITH PERIODS OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES. WITH THESE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WE ARE
CONFIDENT FOR NO FLOODING IMPACTS TO OCCUR WITH THIS FIRST
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
FOR THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED BY LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES FOR THE PATTERN TO BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF DAILY PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE RAINFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL INFLUENCE IF PRECIPITATION MIXES
WITH SNOW. THERE'S SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES ON
EXACT AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY NEXT WEEK INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. AT THIS FORECAST TIME, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL GUIDANCES HINTING AT RAIN POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TRENDS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 7:40 PM
EDT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST
OF TOMORROW, BUT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR GFL/PSF LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THIS. EVEN WITHIN SHOWERS, MAINLY VFR VSBYS/CIGS STILL EXPECTED.
ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT THE OTHER TERMINALS WHERE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LESS. SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE AT POU/PSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL OCCUR.
ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND BKN TO OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THEN, LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SHOWERS
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED ONCE THESE SHOWERS ARRIVE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOWER IFR VSBYS/CIGS WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT AROUND 10 KT FROM THE S/SE TONIGHT, WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AT ALB/PSF. WINDS VEER TO THE S/SW TOMORROW, BUT
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KT AT ALL
TERMINALS TOMORROW. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE VARIABLE AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS AT
GFL/POU/PSF WITH 35-45 KT W/SW LOW-LEEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT,
BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED LLWS AT ALB DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRONGER SFC
WINDS HERE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...35
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page