466
FXUS61 KALY 260541
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TWO WEAK PASSAGE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY AND TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODEL DATA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREENS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OUR NEXT MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED TO START WITH PERIODS OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES. WITH THESE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WE ARE
CONFIDENT FOR NO FLOODING IMPACTS TO OCCUR WITH THIS FIRST
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
FOR THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED BY LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES FOR THE PATTERN TO BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF DAILY PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE RAINFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL INFLUENCE IF PRECIPITATION MIXES
WITH SNOW. THERE'S SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES ON
EXACT AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY NEXT WEEK INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. AT THIS FORECAST TIME, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL GUIDANCES HINTING AT RAIN POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...OVC SKIES IN PLACE BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SCOUR OUT ENOUGH FOR
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED EMBEDDED +RA WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
EARLY THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY/CIGS TO IFR
LEVELS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 AT ALL TAF SITES FOR A
3-4 HOUR PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO IFR AT MOST SITES WITH -RA PERSISTING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL/KPOU WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH WHILE A 35-40 KT SOUTHWEST JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD.
LLWS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS THE JET SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LLWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AT
KPOU FOR A SHORT TIME AS AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWEST JET ~45 KT
MOVES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page