224
FXUS61 KALY 260716
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT HAS SPED UP
RESULTING IN RAINFALL ARRIVING EARLIER TODAY. RAIN IS NOW
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EASTERN NY STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING.
RAIN ALSO ENDS SOONER WITH MOST THE MODERATE/STEADY RAIN ENDING
BY 06 UTC FRIDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY 12 UTC FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS FROM
I-90 SOUTHWARD WITH AMOUNTS NOW RANGING FROM 0.50 - 0.75".
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS. THEN, THERE IS LOW
TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK THAT MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLED AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL USHER IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING WELL
MIXED, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON. ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT
LASTS AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS BROAD TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD. RATHER IMPRESSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL DIRECT A MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON (21 - 00 UTC) INITIALLY IN EASTERN NY BEFORE
SPREADING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY THE
TIME THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARRIVE LATE
AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO ALREADY BE POSITIONED ACROSS
THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THUS, PERIOD OF STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL LOOK
TO ACTUALLY MISS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND BECOME FOCUSED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT, WESTERN MA BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUS WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
WITH THE 3-HRLY PROBABILISTIC MATCH MEAN (PMM) PRECIP VALUES
FROM THE HREF RANGING 0.10 - 0.50" BETWEEN 21 UTC AND 03 UTC
FRIDAY. AFTER 03 UTC, STEADY/MODERATE RAIN EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 09 - 12
UTC FRIDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. WINDS
SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING TEMPERTURES
TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TURN
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE CHILLIEST DAY WHERE THERE IS A GREATER THAN 75%
CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 40 DEGREES NEARLY
REGIONWIDE.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WHERE THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
FAVOR INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND A WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND WHILE THE SHORTWAVES PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR MULTIPLE SFC BOUNDARIES THAT CAN HELP FOCUS THE MOISTURE
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
BOUNDARIES AND ENSUING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION, THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
1" OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BETWEEN 7AM WED AND 7AM FRI. LATEST MMEFS USING THE GEFS AND
NAEFS FOR QPF/SNOW MELT (MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS)
AS INPUT SHOW 10 TO 30% CHANCE FOR ACTION AND MINOR FLOOD STAGE
ALONG OUR FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY FLOODING IMPACTS REMAINS LOW, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...OVC SKIES IN PLACE BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SCOUR OUT ENOUGH FOR
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED EMBEDDED +RA WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
EARLY THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY/CIGS TO IFR
LEVELS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 AT ALL TAF SITES FOR A
3-4 HOUR PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO IFR AT MOST SITES WITH -RA PERSISTING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL/KPOU WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH WHILE A 35-40 KT SOUTHWEST JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD.
LLWS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS THE JET SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LLWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AT
KPOU FOR A SHORT TIME AS AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWEST JET ~45 KT
MOVES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...07
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