131
FXUS61 KALY 261045
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT HAS SPED UP
RESULTING IN RAINFALL ARRIVING EARLIER TODAY. RAIN IS NOW
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EASTERN NY STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING.
RAIN ALSO ENDS SOONER WITH MOST THE MODERATE/STEADY RAIN ENDING
BY 06 UTC FRIDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY 12 UTC FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS FROM
I-90 SOUTHWARD WITH AMOUNTS NOW RANGING FROM 0.50 - 0.75".
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS. THEN, THERE IS LOW
TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK THAT MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLED AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL USHER IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING WELL
MIXED, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON. ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT
LASTS AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS BROAD TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD. RATHER IMPRESSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL DIRECT A MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON (21 - 00 UTC) INITIALLY IN EASTERN NY BEFORE
SPREADING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING.
BY THE TIME THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARRIVE
LATE AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE I-90
CORRIDOR. THUS, PERIODS OF STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD
ACTUALLY MISS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND BECOME FOCUSED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT,
WESTERN MA BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE 3-HRLY
PROBABILISTIC MATCH MEAN (PMM) PRECIP VALUES FROM THE HREF
RANGING 0.10 - 0.50" BETWEEN 21 UTC AND 03 UTC FRIDAY. AFTER 03
UTC, STEADY/MODERATE RAIN EXITS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH JUST
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 09 - 12 UTC FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING TEMPERTURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY
EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TURN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE CHILLIEST DAY WHERE
THERE IS A GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW 40 DEGREES NEARLY REGIONWIDE.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WHERE THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
FAVOR INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND A WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND WHILE THE SHORTWAVES PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR MULTIPLE SFC BOUNDARIES THAT CAN HELP FOCUS THE MOISTURE
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
BOUNDARIES AND ENSUING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION, THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
1" OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BETWEEN 7AM WED AND 7AM FRI. LATEST MMEFS USING THE GEFS AND
NAEFS FOR QPF/SNOW MELT (MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS)
AS INPUT SHOW 10 TO 30% CHANCE FOR ACTION AND MINOR FLOOD STAGE
ALONG OUR FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY FLOODING IMPACTS REMAINS LOW, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING, THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED EMBEDDED +RA WITH SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EARLY THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY/CIGS TO IFR LEVELS SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PROB30 AT ALL TAF SITES FOR A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR WITH
-RA PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 06Z-08Z FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-11 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, BECOMING
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THEN
INCREASING TO 8-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT TOWARDS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS A
SOUTHWEST JET SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF
LLWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AT KPOU FOR A SHORT TIME AS AN
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWEST JET ~45 KT MOVES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...07
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