375
FXUS61 KALY 270624
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY SLIPPERY
TRAVEL.
2) MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER
OR NOT ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ONCE LIGHT RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING, BLUSTERY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIR MASS (850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV) WILL
SETTLE IN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT, THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT COMBINED
WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A QUICK COATING OF
SNOW IN SOME SPOTS COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK
TO NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A DRY PERIOD SUN INTO MON, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME RAINFALL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT,
BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ANOTHER BREAK MAY
THEN OCCUR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THEN RETURN NORTH IN THE THU-FRI
TIMEFRAME WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD
IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. NAEFS INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES
RISE TO +2 TO +3 STDEV, SO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THERE END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG WITH
SNOWMELT FROM THE MOUNTAINS, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ESE ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15-18Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...91
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