146
FXUS61 KALY 271741
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY SLIPPERY
TRAVEL.
2) MULTIPLE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WHETHER OR NOT ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS (850 HPA TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES -1
TO -2 STDEV AND 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF -2 TO -3 STDEV) WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT, THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL. FOR VALLEY AREAS, ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON NON PAVED SURFACES DUE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH THE HIGHER
SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE MILDER
CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SOME SNOW MELT COULD LEAD
TO SOME RIVER RISES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER OR NOT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS OCCUR. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THIS FRONT SHOULD DROP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BRINGING
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALL OTHER
AREAS RAIN. ONCE AGAIN, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY
POSSIBLE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CLOUDS ARE SWIFTLY ERODING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD USHERS IN
DRIER, BUT COOLER AIR. AS SUCH, ALL PRECIPITATION HAS DEPARTED
AND CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR
THRESHOLDS. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, LINGERING
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK BEFORE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL
FORCE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE VFR CATEGORY. THE ONLY
DEVIATION FROM VFR CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR AT ALB IN THE EVENT
THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY INTO MVFR
THRESHOLDS BETWEEN 04-09Z, BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS LOW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/33
AVIATION...12/23
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