059
FXUS61 KALY 291041
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ALSO, AND SPS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN MA AND WESTERN CT TODAY. WE LOWERED DEW
POINTS AND RH AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND RH AS LOW AS 25-35%
TODAY MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD, MAINLY FOR
WESTERN CT AND MA. PLEASE SEE THE .FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
2) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
3) A STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS OF 2:30 AM EDT...WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION OVER LAKE ONTARIO WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z. A
COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ADKS WITH THESE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT MINIMAL, IF ANY,
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ONCE THESE SNOW SHOWERS END,
OUR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC HIGH ALONG WITH NW FLOW AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION, SO WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE, AND WE BUMPED UP WINDS
ABOVE THE NBM WITH DEEP BL MIXING WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY
SPRING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS, AND
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO
THE 60S) WITH MORE LOW- LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MONDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION INCREASES AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS WITH A GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS,
CAUSING IT TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE SAME
TIME, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT,
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS. RAIN
COULD BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE AT TIMES, AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.25", WHICH IS OVER 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN THIS, WE TRENDED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NBM TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR TENDS TO BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR, THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS, AND TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 70S,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN, AND TEMPS WERE
ACTUALLY BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LEADS TO
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW, SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH
NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR. AS THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR E/NE
WEDNESDAY, IT WILL DRAG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD REACH
OUT SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL. WITH POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, IT COULD BE QUITE
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE
IF THE FRONT DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NW. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER,
AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING WEST
OF THE REGION WILL HELP LIFT THIS FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MORE PRECIP IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK, AND WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE
SOME WINTRY PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER,
AS FAR AS HYDRO CONCERNS GO, THE HEAVIEST RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS THE ADKS, WITH THE NBM
ALREADY SHOWING A BETTER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR OVER 1" OF RAIN
THERE. WITH UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF LIQUID STILL IN THE SNOW
PACK ACROSS THE ADKS, THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
MELTING. RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF FLOODING ON MOST MAIN-STEM RIVERS STILL APPEARING
LOW. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SCHROON RIVER AND WEST CANADA CREEK,
WHICH HAVE A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING PER
THE LATEST HEFS. THE NAEFS ARE MORE BULLISH ON FLOODING FOR
SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OUT OF THE ADKS, BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDONE ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THE LAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE REGION, SO THE HEFS PROBABILITIES SEEM MORE REALISTIC
AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THEREFORE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL, SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH 15Z RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS
DECREASE BETWEEN 22Z AND AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...05
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