933
FXUS61 KALY 292323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO LOWER RH FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INCREASE WIND
GUSTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. IN ADDITION,
HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE IN PLACE.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, ENOUGH MAY BE PRESENT ALOFT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
IS PROBABLY WEST OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 25% TO 35% THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK
OF FIRE SPREAD, MAINLY FOR WESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.
2) A STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS, ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOST AREAS HAVE LOST THEIR SNOW PACK, ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND. MUCH OF
THE REGION SAW A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, MARCH
26TH, ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SAW THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.
OUR REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING OCCURRING AND A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT LOW LEVELS, RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS
25 TO 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FIRE SPREAD FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER FOR TONIGHT, WITH WINDS
DECREASING AS WELL.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. RH VALUES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 50 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE DAY FOR WESTERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY END ANY
ISOLATED THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL RETURN ONCE ANY RAIN THREAT ENDS UNTIL GREENUP
OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO START AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING,
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NO THREAT FOR ANY THUNDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AS ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND
PRECIP INTENSITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME. MOST
AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ON AND
OFF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PWATS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE. PWATS WILL EXCEED ONE INCH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.3 INCHES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. WHILE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WARMER TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, WHERE THE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SPREAD TOWARDS EASTERN NEW
YORK BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DESPITE BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR,
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS
OUR AREA, WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FURTHER TO THE WEST, AS SEEN
IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK. STILL, ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE AROUND FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL, TOTAL PRECIP WILL BE RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO AN INCH IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO NEARLY
TWO INCHES OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LATEST NBM SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITY OF TOTAL PRECIP TO EXCEED AN INCH FOR THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY ADIRONDACKS, BUT PROBABILITIES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
BASED ON THE LATEST QPF, THERE COULD BE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME RIVER RISES,
THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING LOOKS LIMITED TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS STILL SOME RUNOFF CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, ALTHOUGH IT'S UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW MUCH
TOTAL WATER IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
MMEFS SUGGESTS SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THIS
COULD BE OVERDONE. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING DUE TO THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
ALTHOUGH THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY MORE LONG-FUSED DUE TO
THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT AS OPPOSED TO FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND MONITOR RIVER FORECASTS
FROM THE NERFC AND NWM GUIDANCE FROM NWC.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/TUESDAY, DESPITE
PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND CIGS OF 6000-15000 FT
AGL. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z/MON AT KALB,
KPSF AND KGFL, HOWEVER OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT OVERNIGHT,
EXCEPT REMAINING ELEVATED AT 8-12 KT AT KALB WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING TO 8-14 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
25 KT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 20 KT AFTER 23Z/MON.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AT KPOU AND KPSF, AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 8 KT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WHILE WINDS AROUND
2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 30-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...24
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