023
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME
HUNG UP ACROSS OUR REGION. FINALLY, INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT WINTRY PRECIP NOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL BUT BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
2) A STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
3) ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS, PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS OF 2:25 AM EDT...OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER IMPULSE. WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED, TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WHILE THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT CONTINUES TO SEE LIGHT WINDS AND MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS THAT ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
40S AT THIS TIME.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING UNDER PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. CLOUDS INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP PRE-GREENUP BL MIXING. GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED
PROFILE, WE ALSO CONTINUED TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NBM. MIXING DOWN OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALSO HELP OFFSET MOIST ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE DROPPED DEW POINTS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
THE NBM AS WELL. WE COULD THEREFORE SEE RH VALUES DROP TO 35-40%
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THESE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
FOR WESTERN MA IN COORDINATION WITH MA STATE PARTNERS AND WFO BOX.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TONIGHT, A STRENGTHENING LLJ WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION MOVES OVER THE REGION, HELPING TO INCREASE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH SOME FGEN
ALONG THE FRONT AND CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS, BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND THE BETTER
FORCING. OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY BE DRIER, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY, AND SO IN COORDINATION
WITH WFO BTV WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM THE NBM IN THE TYPICAL AREAS AGAINST THE EAST-FACING SLOPES
OF THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK QUITE WARM, WITH
LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
A SECOND, STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME, PWATS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 1.3" ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL PER THE LATEST NAEFS. THERE WILL ALSO BE GOOD
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT NEAR THE FRONT, SO TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ADKS. THIS SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A CAP HERE
AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. SPC HAS PLACED WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY, BUT THIS SEEMS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A WORST-CASE SCENARIO, AS LACK OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY/LACK OF FORCING TO OVERCOME ANY CAP SUGGESTS THAT
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE VERY LOW IN OUR CWA. THAT
SAID, SOME NON-SEVERE THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWALTER VALUES <0 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A FEW MORE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AS
WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS, AS THIS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW EARLY IN THE DAY THE
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST AREAS, TEMPERATURES
LIKELY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S THOUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THIS POINT, QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TO AS HIGH
AS 2 INCHES ACROSS THE ADKS. WITH SOME SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND IN
THE ADKS, THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
ENOUGH RUNOFF FOR RIVER RISES. FOR THE ADKS AND RIVERS DRAINING
THE ADKS, THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MINOR
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK AND SCHROON
RIVER. HOWEVER, PER CONVERSATIONS WITH THE NERFC, ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS FOR RIVERS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
DUE TO THE MODELS OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE SNOW TO
MELT OUT. OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITHIN-BANK
RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED, BUT PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING IS QUITE
LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SOME LARGER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK VS PREVIOUS FORECASTS: WHEREAS THE COLD FRONT
PREVIOUSLY LOOKED TO SETTLE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IT NOW LOOKS TO ONLY DROP TO AROUND THE I-84 CORRIDOR
THANKS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED WEST ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL
NOT ONLY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF COOL AIR FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL ALSO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE NEXT
STORM FURTHER WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS. THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNAL ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, BUT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION PRECIP NOW
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY PLAIN RAIN. THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTH
FRIDAY, PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR W/NW OVER
THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF ITS COLD
FRONT AS WELL, SO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO
REMAIN ON THE WETTER SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 2PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00 UTC
FOR ALL TERMINALS. BY 03 TO 06 UTC, CEILINGS START TO DECREASE
IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING SHOWERS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AND HOW CEILINGS WILL
RESPOND. IF SHOWERS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH, CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR
WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SOLUTION AT ALB, GFL AND
PSF. GFL LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN INCOMING
BOUNDARY WHICH INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AND
INCLUDED THAT IN THE LATEST TAF UPDATE. SHOWERS THEN PERSIST
THROUGH 12 - 15 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS BUT TURN LIGHTER AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SHOWERS EVEN ENDING AT POU. LESS
CONFIDENCE AT ALB AND PSF SO MAINTAIN LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVED VISIBILITY TO SHOW SHOWERS TURNING LIGHTER. GFL LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
THROUGH SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IS
EVEN POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN DECOUPLE BY SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY DEVELOPS
AT POU, PSF, AND ALB BY 09 - 12 UTC AS WINDS AROUND 2KFT
INCREASE TO 30 AND 40 KNOTS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THEN,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN GUSTY BY 12 - 15 UTC AS SHOWERS
DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...31
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