609
FXUS61 KALY 302315
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUE TO 8 PM WED FOR HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR RECENT WET SOILS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO 1-2" OF RAINFALL AND SOME SNOW MELT. THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES WERE EXPANDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS
WERE LOWERED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WED FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PROGRESS DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WESTERN MA.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS OVER THE SW ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TUE MORNING THROUGH WED.
3). ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (WINTRY MIX), PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARM AFTERNOON WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S OVER THE MTNS AND 60S TO LOWER
70S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS. THE RH VALUES HAVE
LOWERED INTO THE 25-40% RANGE DUE TO DEEPER MIXING WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. AN SPS CONTINUES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS BASED ON INPUT FROM MA STATE PARTNERS
AND WFO BOX. THE SPS RUNS UNTIL 6 PM. RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AFTER THAT WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT TOWARDS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FIRE WX CONCERNS DIMINISH FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AHEAD WITH A WET AND UNSETTLED STRETCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE 850 HPA LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE AND SFC
CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-90. THE
PWATS SURGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SHOWERS INCREASING INITIALLY WEST
TO NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, BUT THEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING, AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
MUCAPES IN THE 100-250 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTH
AND WEST. WE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID
TO LATE MORNING WEST, AND THEN EXPANDED EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAINFALL IN THE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH RANGE SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT FOR HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TUE PM AND NIGHT. PWATS RISE 1-1.25+" WHICH ARE 2-3+ STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OFF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT.
THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD WITH
50S AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S TO NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG T-STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH MUCAPE INSTABILITY
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7C/KM ON SOME OF THE CAMS WITH DEEP SHEAR 45-50 KT. THE
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY PARCELS BECOME SURFACE BASED FOR A
SEVERE THREAT. SPC CONTINUES A DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALBANY WEST/SOUTHWEST. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE, IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. THE WARM SECTOR MAYBE
CLUTTERED WITH CLOUDS. SPC DOES HAVE 2% PROBS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP SHEAR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ELEVATE CREEK/RIVER FLOWS IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES 40-50% PROBABILITIES >1" OF RAINFALL FOR
HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING
12Z/WED. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS INDICATE MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST FOR HINCKLEY RESERVOIR AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE WEST
CANADA CREEK. WE COLLABORATED WITH WFO BUF AND BGM ON A FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH WED PM. THE FRONTAL POSITION BY 12Z/WED IS
VARIABLE ON THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IT
COULD BE NEAR THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. WE BLENDED
THE NBM/MAVMOS AND LOWERED TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 13Z NBM
NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD AND 60S SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE I84 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS FALL WED NIGHT INTO THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. SOME LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PA AND NJ.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE LATEST NBM/WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PCPN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA THU-THU NIGHT.
POPS INCREASE INTO THE 50-80% RANGE ON THU, AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE OLD FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. THE WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME SNOW OR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN
DACKS AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS, ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT. THERE IS A
COLD DAMMING SIGNATURE ALONG THE NORTHERN MTNS, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT THE BRIEF ICY MIX. THIS WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS.
AN SPS OR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, IF THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT INCREASES, THOUGH OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THU NIGHT THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S. MILDER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING W/NW OF
UPSTATE NY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS
AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT, THOUGH IT COULD BE LATE SATURDAY OR ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
EVENING WITH BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT. THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, IT WILL REMAIN DRY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE 5-10 KTS. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AT KPOU, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
NOCTURNAL EFFECTS TAKE OVER.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT
KGFL, KALB AND KPSF, WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. KPOU WILL BE ON THE EDGE, SO WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO THERE, BUT PRECIP LOOKS MORE SPOTTY FOR THIS
SITE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE AND CEILINGS
AROUND 2 KFT. WON'T INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME AND WHILE IT
CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF.
BEHIND THE STEADY RAIN, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS AT KGFL, BUT THE OTHER SITES
MAY RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH BKN CIGS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 4 KFT. SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS
(AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM) IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE
DAY, BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS SCATTERED AND THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SOME HIGHER GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...27
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