130
FXUS61 KALY 310531
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUE TO 8 PM WED FOR HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR RECENT WET SOILS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO 1-2" OF RAINFALL AND SOME SNOW MELT. THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES WERE EXPANDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS
WERE LOWERED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WED FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PROGRESS DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WESTERN MA.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS OVER THE SW ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TUE MORNING THROUGH WED.
3). ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (WINTRY MIX), PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARM AFTERNOON WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S OVER THE MTNS AND 60S TO LOWER
70S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS. THE RH VALUES HAVE
LOWERED INTO THE 25-40% RANGE DUE TO DEEPER MIXING WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. AN SPS CONTINUES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS BASED ON INPUT FROM MA STATE PARTNERS
AND WFO BOX. THE SPS RUNS UNTIL 6 PM. RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AFTER THAT WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT TOWARDS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FIRE WX CONCERNS DIMINISH FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AHEAD WITH A WET AND UNSETTLED STRETCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE 850 HPA LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE AND SFC
CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-90. THE
PWATS SURGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SHOWERS INCREASING INITIALLY WEST
TO NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, BUT THEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING, AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
MUCAPES IN THE 100-250 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTH
AND WEST. WE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID
TO LATE MORNING WEST, AND THEN EXPANDED EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAINFALL IN THE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH RANGE SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT FOR HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TUE PM AND NIGHT. PWATS RISE 1-1.25+" WHICH ARE 2-3+ STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OFF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT.
THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD WITH
50S AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S TO NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG T-STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH MUCAPE INSTABILITY
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7C/KM ON SOME OF THE CAMS WITH DEEP SHEAR 45-50 KT. THE
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY PARCELS BECOME SURFACE BASED FOR A
SEVERE THREAT. SPC CONTINUES A DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALBANY WEST/SOUTHWEST. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE, IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. THE WARM SECTOR MAYBE
CLUTTERED WITH CLOUDS. SPC DOES HAVE 2% PROBS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP SHEAR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ELEVATE CREEK/RIVER FLOWS IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES 40-50% PROBABILITIES >1" OF RAINFALL FOR
HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING
12Z/WED. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS INDICATE MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST FOR HINCKLEY RESERVOIR AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE WEST
CANADA CREEK. WE COLLABORATED WITH WFO BUF AND BGM ON A FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH WED PM. THE FRONTAL POSITION BY 12Z/WED IS
VARIABLE ON THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IT
COULD BE NEAR THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. WE BLENDED
THE NBM/MAVMOS AND LOWERED TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 13Z NBM
NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD AND 60S SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE I84 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS FALL WED NIGHT INTO THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. SOME LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PA AND NJ.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE LATEST NBM/WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PCPN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA THU-THU NIGHT.
POPS INCREASE INTO THE 50-80% RANGE ON THU, AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE OLD FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. THE WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME SNOW OR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN
DACKS AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS, ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT. THERE IS A
COLD DAMMING SIGNATURE ALONG THE NORTHERN MTNS, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT THE BRIEF ICY MIX. THIS WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS.
AN SPS OR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, IF THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT INCREASES, THOUGH OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THU NIGHT THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S. MILDER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING W/NW OF
UPSTATE NY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS
AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT, THOUGH IT COULD BE LATE SATURDAY OR ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AS OF 1:25 AM EDT FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE TO FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR ALB/PSF/GFL, EXPECTING A TREND DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS WITHIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS. THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW AROUND 12Z WHERE SOME
BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS OCCUR AT ALB/PSF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN PROB30 GROUPS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER AT GFL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM 11-12Z THROUGH
MID-MORNING, WHICH WAS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO GROUP. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT POU OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT GFL, BUT OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS EVENING, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
WITH THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION A BROKEN LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT, WHICH WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN PROB30 GROUPS. THIS
LINE SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF GFL BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT THERE TOWARDS 06Z, BUT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE AT 5-10 KT FROM THE S/SW THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING, TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT ALB/POU/PSF. GUSTS
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET, EXCEPT WINDS COULD REMAIN GUSTY
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH WITH WINDS AROUND 2000 FT INCREASING TO 35-45 KT FROM THE
W/SW, AND MENTIONED LLWS AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RE-STRENGTHENS TO 45-55 KT FROM
THE W/SW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
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