608
FXUS61 KALY 310742
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, FOR A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WEST OF ALBANY WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY INTO TOMORROW COULD OCCUR IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS SUCH AS
MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
3). ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (WINTRY MIX), PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS THAT COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS LOCATIONS
WEST OF ALBANY. THE FIRST SCENARIO, WHICH IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO, IS THAT OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND DUE TO THIS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE, THERE IS LIMITED
INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
SECOND SCENARIO THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ARE VERY LIMITED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK, BUT THESE
LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD SUPPORT ENOUGH ENERGY TO HELP
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEING THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
CONCERN IF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE DEVELOP IS WINDS. ONE
IMPORTANT FORECAST NOTE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN
30%) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCES ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER ON THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, WE COULD SEE NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WE CONTINUED MENTION FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE (15-30%)
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY LATER TONIGHT,
THE RISK FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DECREASES TO LESS THAN
10% AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING CAN BE BREEZY, WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND
25 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE MEDIUM (40-60%) FOR THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO SEE POTENTIAL FLOODING
IMPACTS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IMPACTS INCLUDE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WITH POOR DRAINAGE, RIVER RISES, AND
CONTINUED SNOW MELT DUE TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
IMPACTS, THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
FORECASTS INDICATE MINOR FLOODING FORECAST FOR HINCKLEY
RESERVOIR AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
AND RIVER FORECASTS INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A DREARY DAY IN STORE WITH OVERCAST SKIES
AND MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
RAIN FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING. LOCATIONS FOR THIS EXCEPTION ARE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS, WHERE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, THEN A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CAN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR PERIODS THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ON NON-PAVEMENT SURFACES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE THURSDAY MORNING TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 50%. WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LESS A QUARTER INCH,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS
TO OCCUR FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AS OF 1:25 AM EDT FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE TO FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR ALB/PSF/GFL, EXPECTING A TREND DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS WITHIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS. THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW AROUND 12Z WHERE SOME
BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS OCCUR AT ALB/PSF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN PROB30 GROUPS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER AT GFL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM 11-12Z THROUGH
MID-MORNING, WHICH WAS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO GROUP. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT POU OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT GFL, BUT OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS EVENING, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
WITH THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION A BROKEN LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT, WHICH WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN PROB30 GROUPS. THIS
LINE SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF GFL BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT THERE TOWARDS 06Z, BUT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE AT 5-10 KT FROM THE S/SW THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING, TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT ALB/POU/PSF. GUSTS
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET, EXCEPT WINDS COULD REMAIN GUSTY
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH WITH WINDS AROUND 2000 FT INCREASING TO 35-45 KT FROM THE
W/SW, AND MENTIONED LLWS AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RE-STRENGTHENS TO 45-55 KT FROM
THE W/SW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...35
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