259
FXUS61 KALY 311755
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, FOR A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WEST OF ALBANY WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY INTO TOMORROW COULD OCCUR IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS SUCH AS
MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
3). ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (WINTRY MIX), PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS THAT COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS LOCATIONS
WEST OF ALBANY. THE FIRST SCENARIO, WHICH IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO, IS THAT OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND DUE TO THIS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE, THERE IS LIMITED
INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
SECOND SCENARIO THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ARE VERY LIMITED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK, BUT THESE
LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD SUPPORT ENOUGH ENERGY TO HELP
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEING THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
CONCERN IF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE DEVELOP IS WINDS. ONE
IMPORTANT FORECAST NOTE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN
30%) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCES ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER ON THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, WE COULD SEE NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WE CONTINUED MENTION FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE (15-30%)
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY LATER TONIGHT,
THE RISK FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DECREASES TO LESS THAN
10% AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING CAN BE BREEZY, WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND
25 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE MEDIUM (40-60%) FOR THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO SEE POTENTIAL FLOODING
IMPACTS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IMPACTS INCLUDE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WITH POOR DRAINAGE, RIVER RISES, AND
CONTINUED SNOW MELT DUE TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
IMPACTS, THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
FORECASTS INDICATE MINOR FLOODING FORECAST FOR HINCKLEY
RESERVOIR AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
AND RIVER FORECASTS INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A DREARY DAY IN STORE WITH OVERCAST SKIES
AND MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
RAIN FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING. LOCATIONS FOR THIS EXCEPTION ARE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS, WHERE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, THEN A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CAN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR PERIODS THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ON NON-PAVEMENT SURFACES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE THURSDAY MORNING TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 50%. WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LESS A QUARTER INCH,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS
TO OCCUR FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...A BATCH OF EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH A TREND BACK TO VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH EVEN SOME LIMITED
BREAKS OF SUN. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO TRACKING EASTWARD WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THESE SHOWERS ARRIVING EARLY THIS
EVENING. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES,
GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHOWERS IMPACTING ALB, PSF AND GFL BY
23 UTC AND 04 UTC WITH POU POTENTIALLY REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO MISS OUT AND REMAIN VFR. DURING THESE SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN, EXPECTING MVFR CIGS WITH VIS ALSO BECOMING MVFR DUE TO
STEADY PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF UPDATE BUT IF THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT ALB AND PSF WHERE UP TO 500 - 1000J/KG OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HELP STORMS
ORGANIZE. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN STORMS INCREASE, MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 05 UTC/01, MOST OF
THE SHOWERS/STORMS EXITS WITH FLYING CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR. HOWEVER, A SFC COLD FRONT STALLED TO OUR NORTH TODAY
LOOKS TO SINK SOUTHWARD BY 12 - 15 UTC/01 RESULTING IN LOW END
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY REMAIN SUSTAINED 5-8KTS WITH
WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WAS THEN INTRODUCED AT GFL, PSF, AND POU FOLLOWING THE
EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 02 - 04 UTC AND THEN
PERSISTING THROUGH 11-12 UTC AS WINDS AT 2KFT REACH 40-45KTS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT GFL AND ALB BY 12 - 15
UTC AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD WITH PSF AND POU HOLDING
ONTO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE BOUNDARY HANGS JUST TO THE NORTH. SHOULD THE BOUNDARY END UP
ARRIVING AT PSF EARLIER, WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...31
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