982
FXUS61 KALY 311924
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
324 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THOUGH THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ELEVATED.
THE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAS ALSO INCREASED,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE AMOUNTS
FROM THIS MORNING'S INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL MEASURED HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
2) ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL LEAD TO MINOR
TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ISOLATED PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
3) NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE COMING SEVEN DAYS
MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR RIVER AND URBANIZED
FLOODING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EASTWARD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO SNEAK INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING A RESPITE FROM RAINFALL
THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR MOST OF THE DAY THUS FAR. FINALLY, A
FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE ARE APPEARING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE,
ALLOWING SCATTERED, LOW-LEVEL BILLOW CLOUDS TO BE SEEN BENEATH
THINNING HIGH CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THESE CLOUDS PROVIDE
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE VALIDITY OF THE CAPPED TO MINIMALLY
SURFACE- BASED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE SPC HOURLY
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AND HINTED AT IN THE LATEST HIRES
SOUNDINGS. AS WAS THE THOUGHT IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE JUST INSIDE OUR NORTHERN
CWA BOUNDARY WITH A PARENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NY BORDER. STRINGING THREE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TOGETHER IS A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE MID-LEVELS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BROAD PSEUDO-WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS MAINTAINED MILD
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THIS
MORNING'S RAIN AND LIMITED RADIATION HAVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN OUR LOW- LEVEL STABLE LAYER. THIS LATE IN THE DAY, IT
IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO ERODE THIS INVERSION,
PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT PERSISTENT, THOUGH WEAK, WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVENT LAPSE RATES FROM BECOMING STEEP
ENOUGH TO THREATEN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE, MOST, IF NOT ALL, INSTABILITY THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS
AND PERSISTS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. THAT SAID, WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES MAXIMIZING AROUND 6.5-7
C/KM, THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXITS.
FOR THESE REASONS, WE MAINTAINED THE NBM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDER WITHIN THE SHOWERS THAT FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. IT IS ALSO FOR THESE REASONS THAT, IN COORDINATION
WITH SPC AND OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY IS A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT, GIVEN SOME HIRES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SEEM TO EITHER NOT
RESOLVE THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP, OR ALLOW SURFACE-BASED PARCELS
TO OVERCOME IT. BUT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
MESSAGE THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AREN'T EXACTLY ALLUDING TO SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, THEY ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTING
EFFICIENT RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP, MOIST THERMAL LAYERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, THE ALIGNMENT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY 925-850 MB NOCTURNAL JET THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND
POSSIBLY EXPAND AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD, ABOUT 0.25" TO NEARLY 2" OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN THUS FAR TODAY. GIVEN THE FAVORED ENVIRONMENT
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL HEAVIER RATES, ANOTHER
0.5" TO 1" IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER A FLOOD
WATCH (SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY), THOUGH
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT COULD ALSO SEE SOME HIGHER QPF BY TOMORROW. THERE HAS
ALREADY BEEN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK
WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER,
ANYWHERE THAT GETS SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. FLASH FLOODING, HOWEVER, IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A DREARY DAY IN STORE WITH OVERCAST SKIES
AND MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
RAIN FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING. LOCATIONS FOR THIS EXCEPTION ARE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS, WHERE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, THEN A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CAN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR PERIODS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON NON-PAVEMENT SURFACES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE THURSDAY MORNING
TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN
RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN
50%. WITH THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LESS A QUARTER INCH, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS TO OCCUR FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...A BATCH OF EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH A TREND BACK TO VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH EVEN SOME LIMITED
BREAKS OF SUN. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO TRACKING EASTWARD WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THESE SHOWERS ARRIVING EARLY THIS
EVENING. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES,
GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHOWERS IMPACTING ALB, PSF AND GFL BY
23 UTC AND 04 UTC WITH POU POTENTIALLY REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO MISS OUT AND REMAIN VFR. DURING THESE SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN, EXPECTING MVFR CIGS WITH VIS ALSO BECOMING MVFR DUE TO
STEADY PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF UPDATE BUT IF THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY AT ALB AND PSF WHERE UP TO 500 - 1000J/KG OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HELP STORMS
ORGANIZE. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN STORMS INCREASE, MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 05 UTC/01, MOST OF
THE SHOWERS/STORMS EXITS WITH FLYING CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR. HOWEVER, A SFC COLD FRONT STALLED TO OUR NORTH TODAY
LOOKS TO SINK SOUTHWARD BY 12 - 15 UTC/01 RESULTING IN LOW END
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY REMAIN SUSTAINED 5-8KTS WITH
WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WAS THEN INTRODUCED AT GFL, PSF, AND POU FOLLOWING THE
EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 02 - 04 UTC AND THEN
PERSISTING THROUGH 11-12 UTC AS WINDS AT 2KFT REACH 40-45KTS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT GFL AND ALB BY 12 - 15
UTC AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD WITH PSF AND POU HOLDING
ONTO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE BOUNDARY HANGS JUST TO THE NORTH. SHOULD THE BOUNDARY END UP
ARRIVING AT PSF EARLIER, WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...31
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page