644
FXUS61 KALY 011918
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
318 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, SINCE THESE AREAS MISSED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE PAST TWO DAYS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WITH RIVERS IN MINOR AND EVEN
MODERATE FLOOD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TRENDING DOWNWARD TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF RAIN IS
LIKELY TONIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AREAS.
3) THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT
IMPACTING LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WEST CANADA CREEK,
SACANDAGA RIVER AND THE MOHAWK RIVER REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
FORECAST POINTS AT KAST BRIDGE, HINCKLEY, HOPE, AND LITTLE
FALLS AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER INDICATE THAT THESE RIVERS
SHOULD CREST THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING
DOWNWARDS INTO TOMORROW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT TRACKED SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKING
FROM WEST TO EAST WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH ENHANCED WARM AIR ADVECTION, VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FGEN CENTERED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
I-90 SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARDS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH OUR FORECAST NOW SHOWING A GENERAL 0.25 - 0.75"
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER STILL SUPPORT
RIVERS TRENDING DOWNWARD TONIGHT AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. FOR
THESE REASONS, WE WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE
AT 8PM TONIGHT AND SWITCH TO MESSAGING ANY FLOODING IMPACTS
THROUGH OUR FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DREARY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. THIS IS
ALL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
RESULTING IN A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING COOL AIR WEDGED
UNDERNEATH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL WITH MANY STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE 30S AND 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS EVEN A 40 TO 80%
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM I-90 NORTHWARD AND IN THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 45 DEGREES. THE SOUTHERN GREENS, SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, AND BERKSHIRES WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST IN THE LOW
TO MID-30S MOST OF THE DAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARDS
FREEZING IN THESE WILL REMAIN LIKELY SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE BUT GIVEN RECENT WARMTH AND EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE,
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTED. ANY ICING SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000FT AND ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. HOWEVER, BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE SFC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WILL REMAIN NEAR
FREEZING AND SUPPORTING ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN. LATEST FLAT
ICE AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH SFC TEMPERATURES COOLING FURTHER THROUGH WET-BULBING
THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS AT AND ABOVE 2000FT. WE COORDINATED
WITH WFO BTV AND GYX AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN ANY SLIPPERY TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MAY BE ISSUED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR THIS WEEKEND, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURN AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
FORECAST TIME ARE LOW AS PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING TO BE LIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 70S, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
ARE SUPPORTING FOR SATURDAY TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS SHAPING UP TO BE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
KALB-KPSF TOWARDS KPOU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AT
KALB/KGFL 1.0-2.5 KFT AGL WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS AT KPSF WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS ARE
VFR ARE KPOU 3.5-5 KFT AGL WITH THE FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS MAY SET UP FOR KGFL
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. KALB
WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BETWEEN 19Z-
22Z/WED. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE 23Z/WED-03Z/THU
FOR KPOU/KPSF WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED TO BRING THEM
IN PRIOR TO 04Z/THU FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB. KGFL WILL BE A BIT LATER
TOWARDS 04Z-08Z/THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PRIOR TO
14Z/THU WITH DEVELOPING IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY FROM KALB-KPSF
SOUTHWARD. KGFL MAY HAVE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AROUND 12Z/THU, BUT WAS
LEFT AS RAIN FOR NOW. IFR CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER HERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS 15Z-18Z/THU AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING BY.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM NORTH/NORTHEAST 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-25
KT. THE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT KPOU/KPSF WILL
SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z-21Z/WED. THE WINDS WILL BE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KT AND WILL VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR KALB/KPSF SOUTHWARD IN THE LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...35
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