585
FXUS61 KALY 012320
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, SINCE THESE AREAS MISSED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE PAST TWO DAYS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WITH RIVERS IN MINOR AND EVEN
MODERATE FLOOD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TRENDING DOWNWARD TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF RAIN IS
LIKELY TONIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AREAS.
3) THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT
IMPACTING LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WEST CANADA CREEK,
SACANDAGA RIVER AND THE MOHAWK RIVER REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
FORECAST POINTS AT KAST BRIDGE, HINCKLEY, HOPE, AND LITTLE
FALLS AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER INDICATE THAT THESE RIVERS
SHOULD CREST THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING
DOWNWARDS INTO TOMORROW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT TRACKED SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKING
FROM WEST TO EAST WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH ENHANCED WARM AIR ADVECTION, VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FGEN CENTERED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
I-90 SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARDS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH OUR FORECAST NOW SHOWING A GENERAL 0.25 - 0.75"
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER STILL SUPPORT
RIVERS TRENDING DOWNWARD TONIGHT AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. FOR
THESE REASONS, WE WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE
AT 8PM TONIGHT AND SWITCH TO MESSAGING ANY FLOODING IMPACTS
THROUGH OUR FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DREARY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. THIS IS
ALL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
RESULTING IN A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING COOL AIR WEDGED
UNDERNEATH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL WITH MANY STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE 30S AND 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS EVEN A 40 TO 80%
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM I-90 NORTHWARD AND IN THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 45 DEGREES. THE SOUTHERN GREENS, SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, AND BERKSHIRES WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST IN THE LOW
TO MID-30S MOST OF THE DAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARDS
FREEZING IN THESE WILL REMAIN LIKELY SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE BUT GIVEN RECENT WARMTH AND EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE,
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTED. ANY ICING SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000FT AND ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. HOWEVER, BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE SFC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WILL REMAIN NEAR
FREEZING AND SUPPORTING ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN. LATEST FLAT
ICE AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH SFC TEMPERATURES COOLING FURTHER THROUGH WET-BULBING
THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS AT AND ABOVE 2000FT. WE COORDINATED
WITH WFO BTV AND GYX AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN ANY SLIPPERY TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MAY BE ISSUED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OUR WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A WET EASTER SUNDAY AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DIRECTING A PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, A
WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
EXACTLY WHEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF
THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE, AT LEAST A PORTION OF EASTER
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY (ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT). HOWEVER, IF IT IS FASTER, MOST OF THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE RAINY AND COOL. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RESULTING IN ELEVATED RIVERS, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED FLOODING BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
REMAINS LOW. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10 TO 30%
CHANCE FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO
RECEIVE AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 8PM SATURDAY AND 8PM
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE SLOWLY
DRIFTING BACK NORTHWARD FOR THURSDAY. WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT, A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY
FOR KALB, KPSF AND KPOU. ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR/MVFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD, THEY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR WITHIN THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY FOR
KPOU. THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE FROM ABOUT 04Z THROUGH 12Z.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING, WHICH WILL KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. CEILINGS WILL ONLY BE 1500-2500 FT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS UNLIKELY AFTER
18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY AT ALBANY, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS FOR ALL
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...27
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