892
FXUS61 KALY 021848
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
248 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO LOWERED ICE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGH TOMORROW DUE TO MARGINAL THERMAL
PROFILES AND ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH MINOR FLOODING ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AND MOHAWK RIVER NEAR LITTLE FALLS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
2) LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
MORNING, AND TODAY INTO TOMORROW FOR THE SOUTHERN GREENS COULD LEAD
TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.
3) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:55 AM EDT...MODERATE TO NEAR MAJOR FLOODING IS
CONTINUING ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SNOW MELT. THE MOHAWK RIVER NEAR
LITTLE FALLS REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE, WHILE ALL OTHER
RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. FOR
THE RIVER AREAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FLOODING, WE ARE
EXPECTING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAIN
TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE RIVER LEVELS. PER LATEST NERFC FORECASTS, THE WEST
CANADA CREEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING/INTO TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW
MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOHAWK RIVER NEAR LITTLE
FALLS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS, PLEASE SEE
WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR REGION REMAINS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON CIRA ALWP IMAGERY
OVERLAPPING WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA, WE ARE SEEING LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, EXCEPT FOR THE ADKS WHICH REMAIN NORTH OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD. MOST OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ADKS, BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES THERE RANGING FROM 30-32 DEGREES, A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IS IN THE
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE QPF, BUT MORE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 32.
THE MID-LEVEL FGEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING,
AS DOES THE STEADIER PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTH (COLD) SIDE OF THE SFC WARM FRONT TODAY THANKS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN SE CANADA LEADING TO COLD AIR DAMMING. IN ADDITION, WITH
CONTINUED MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION, TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PERIODS OF MIST AND/OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES.
WE THEREFORE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW THE NBM, CLOSER
TO A LAV/MAV/EC MOS BLEND. WHILE ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO, TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
COULD RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL GLAZE OF ICE THERE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS
(AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH, SO SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANY ICE WILL BE
MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500-2000 FT.
WHILE A FEW SLICK SPOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BORDERLINE THERMAL
PROFILES AND WARM GROUND CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT THIS FROM BEING
OVERLY IMPACTFUL. ADDITIONALLY, THESE ICE AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGE
CONCERNS. THEREFORE, WE HAVE OPTED TO HANDLE WITH SPSS RATHER
THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
WEDGE IN PLACE WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER TEMPS FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS AS WELL AS IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
FOR OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM,
THOUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SATURDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE CANADA BEHIND
OUR DEPARTING LOW, WHILE YET ANOTHER SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW LLJ
ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE DRIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MORE COLD AIR DAMMING THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE, AS WELL AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
(BDCF) TO TRACK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. WE THEREFORE TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
NBM, BUT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, DRAGGING
ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH THIS TIME, SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH, BUT GIVEN
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES. FORTUNATELY, MOST ENSEMBLE RIVER
GUIDANCE HAS A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%) CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRIER AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO 40S
(VALLEYS) MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S TO 30S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOK QUITE BREEZY WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A FEW LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND UNIMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR AND AND PERIODS OF IFR WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KALB AND KGFL TRENDING TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AFTER 23Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHTER RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. MVFR VIS WILL THEN
IMPROVE BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND/OR MVFR WITH A THICK LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THIS EVENING AND
RANGE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS AT ALL THE
TERMINALS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. KALB COULD BE BREEZIER WITH A
FEW GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS EARLY TOMORROW AROUND 08Z. WIND SHEAR
WAS MENTIONED AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z. WIND SHEAR WAS NOT
MENTIONED FOR KPOU AND KPSF BECAUSE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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