494
FXUS61 KALY 021856
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
256 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT IN
SOUTHERN VT FOR TONIGHT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY REDUCED DUE TO WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP TRENDS TONIGHT WITH WARMING
TOWARDS THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS AND
GUSTS WERE INCREASED TOMORROW, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT WILL BE BREEZY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK BELOW
HINCKLEY RESERVOIR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH MODERATE TO MINOR
FLOODING ALONG KAST BRIDGE ON THE WEST CANADA CREEK, AS THE
MOHAWK RIVER NEAR LITTLE FALLS MAY FALL BELOW THE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLY TONIGHT.
2) LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS TONIGHT, WHERE
A WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS ISSUED DUE TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
UNTREATED SURFACES. SPOTTY PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE REST OF THE REGION.
3) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND DRIER
FOR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:50 PM EDT...MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES
ON WEST CANADA CREEK THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND
SNOW MELT TUE AND WED. THE MOHAWK RIVER NEAR LITTLE FALLS
REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE, BUT CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND MAY
FALL BELOW FLOOD EARLY TONIGHT. KAST BRIDGE ON THE WEST CANADA
CREEK MAY ALSO LOWER A CATEGORY FROM MODERATE TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC FORECAST, AS IT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECEDE. HINCKLEY RESERVOIR MAY CONTINUE TO
FLOOD THROUGH FRI. FLOWS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDRO SERVICE AREA FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH UP TO
A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, BUT
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO. OVERALL, FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS, PLEASE SEE
WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND
NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO FUNNEL SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY. THE COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE HAS
KEPT IT COOL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACK PACK. ONE
SHORT-WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, AS THE WARM
FRONT STILL REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND LOWER GREAT LAKES CORRIDOR. THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. IT MAY REACH
WESTERN NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU OR WESTERN
DACKS, WHEREAS MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LINGERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW ESPECIALLY OVER OR ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREENS. ANY
ICE WILL BE MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1500 FEET. WE WILL MONITOR THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES IF AN SPS OR
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BENNINGTON AND WESTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IS NEEDED. LIGHT ICE ACCUMS OF A COATING TO
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND WITH THE NIGHT TIME
COOLING SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM GROUND CONDITIONS WILL
PREVENT A MORE IMPACTFUL EVENT. THE ICE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGE
CONCERNS. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC WITH A LOW
AND MID LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE MORNING BEFORE A TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN DACKS, BUT HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REACH THE 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S (ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL) WITH DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WE BLENDED THE
FORECAST/NBM/NBM 90% WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR THE FORECAST. THE COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOWS FALLING BACK IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
KEY MESSAGE 3... LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BRIEFLY BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY SATURDAY, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY TO MID PM WITH THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION (EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS) MAY
HOLD IN THE 50S OR UPPER 40S WITH YET AGAIN A COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNATURE WITH THE RETREATING SFC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. EXPECT 60S AND MAYBE A FEW 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH AND WEST.
THE NEXT SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE REGION
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN OR EASTER MORNING WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD LOW-LEVEL AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. WE ARE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST FROM SPC AT THIS TIME, AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AN INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, WHERE RIVER FLOWS ARE ELEVATED. GIVEN WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ANY RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. MOST OF THE HEFS SHOW ONLY A 5-10%
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE WEST CANADA AND WESTERN
MOHAWK BASINS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGHS ON EASTER WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. COOLER, BRISK, AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TAKE HOLD MON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK. ONE DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR AND AND PERIODS OF IFR WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KALB AND KGFL TRENDING TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AFTER 23Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHTER RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. MVFR VIS WILL THEN
IMPROVE BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND/OR MVFR WITH A THICK LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THIS EVENING AND
RANGE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS AT ALL THE
TERMINALS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. KALB COULD BE BREEZIER WITH A
FEW GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS EARLY TOMORROW AROUND 08Z. WIND SHEAR
WAS MENTIONED AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z. WIND SHEAR WAS NOT
MENTIONED FOR KPOU AND KPSF BECAUSE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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