491
FXUS61 KALY 030617
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
217 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOODING ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE NOW FALLING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY, THESE RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF
RAIN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. PENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
ON SUNDAY, SOME RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS, VISIT WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WHICH IS AROUND 25
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA, MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT CROSSES. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW MORNING BUT
THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES
OVERHEAD NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THEN TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS FORCED IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY MIST ALSO REDUCING
VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR SOME. THROUGHOUT THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERSISTENCE OF LOWERED
CEILINGS WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY TERMINAL
THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO HAVE IMPROVEMENTS INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY IS KPSF.
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN THEIR EXACT TIMING, SO PRIMARILY PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED
TO THE TAFS TO COVER THE PERIODS IN WHICH THEY ARE MOST LIKELY.
SOME INITIAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A BRIEF BREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY ISOLATED, HOWEVER, SO WE KEPT THIS
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LARGELY PREVAIL OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT
5-15KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WHEN GUSTS REACH 15-20KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...12/23
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