478
FXUS61 KALY 031058
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOODING ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE NOW FALLING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY, THESE RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF
RAIN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. PENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
ON SUNDAY, SOME RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS, VISIT WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WHICH IS AROUND 25
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA, MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT CROSSES. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW MORNING BUT
THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES
OVERHEAD NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THEN TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION COURTESY OF A WIDESPREAD, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK DRIVEN
BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
CURRENTLY, SHOULD AVOID MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT GFL AND POSSIBLY
ALB BUT LIGHT RAINFALL RATES SHOULDN'T DO MUCH TO WORSEN ALREADY
UNIDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, SOME BRIEF CLEARING LOOKS TO OCCUR SUCH THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER, WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, CEILINGS
WILL LOWER AGAIN, LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR THIS TIME, AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN AND ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN THE TIMING AND ACTUAL IMPACT OF
SHOWERS, AS HIRES GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY VARIED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER, PROB30S WERE ADDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OCCUR.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY PREVAIL OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE LAST 4-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WHEN
DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-16 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20-30KT PARTICULARLY AT ALB AND PSF.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...12/23
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