901
FXUS61 KALY 031834
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
234 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOODING ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE NOW FALLING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY, THESE RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF
RAIN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. PENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
ON SUNDAY, SOME RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS, VISIT WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WHICH IS AROUND 25
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA, MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT CROSSES. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW MORNING BUT
THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES
OVERHEAD NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THEN TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME BRIEF
CLEARING BEFORE THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW ALONG WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS STILL LINGER AT KPOU BUT ARE
TRENDING TO VFR BY 01Z. VFR CONDITONS PREVAIL AT KALB, KGFL, AND
KPSF. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. THIS IS MENTIONED AT KGFL AND
KALB IN A TEMPO FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 23Z AND A LITTLE LATER FOR KPOU
AND KPSF IN A PROB30 FROM 01Z TO 04Z. THIS COULD LOWER CIGS AND VIS
SLIGHTLY INTO MVFR. CLOSER TO SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD CONDITIONS TREND BACK TOWARDS MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF AND VFR
AT KPOU AND KALB.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE EARLY
HOURS TOMORROW MORNING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND GENERALLY LESSEN
UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WHEN WINDS SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY AND BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP. AFTER 06Z, WIND SPEEDS
RANGE ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...53
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