328
FXUS61 KALY 040553
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY SAT PM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE INCREASED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOODING ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
2) A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
3) GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUN-
SUN NIGHT WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MON-WED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 3:00 PM EDT... FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
WITHIN AND ALONG WEST CANADA CREEK AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON. KAST BRIDGE WILL FALL BELOW ITS MINOR FLOOD
BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC FORECAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM A FEW SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. HINCKLEY MAY FALL
BELOW ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS LATE
SAT, BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES
ACROSS THE WEST CANADA CREEK LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MAY CAUSE FLOWS
TO RISE CLOSE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SUN-SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON A RENEWED THE FLOOD THREAT AND WILL BE MONITORED.
FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS, VISIT WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. PARTY SUNNY SKIES WILL RE-CLOUD UP BRIEFLY, AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MUCAPES ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACK PARK CONTINUE TO
RISE TO 250-500 J/KG. THE MOISTURE FETCH IS LIMITED AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY,
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS PA AND NJ TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S,
EXCEPT SOME MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TOMORROW WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EARLY ON. HOWEVER, THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL APPROACH. THIS FORECAST TRIED TO SLOW DOWN
THE SHOWERS EXCEPT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID
TO LATE PM. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER, AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. HIGHS WILL LOWERED BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE WITH 60S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WITH 50S NORTH AND WEST WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS PARK.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO SAT NIGHT, AS THE
COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT, AS AN OCCLUDED
BOUNDARY AND A TRIPLE POINT PASSES OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FOCUSING SOME GULF
MOISTURE AS PWATS BRIEFLY SURGE 2 TO 3 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED
ON THE LATEST NAEFS. A PERIOD OF RAINFALL SETS UP SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH BASINS AVERAGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH WITH A
HALF AN INCH TO INCH WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOCATIONS
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS MAY GET AROUND AN INCH, SO WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT, WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
TAPPED INTO. THE TIMING IS BAD FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA EASTER SUNDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION SUN-SUN NIGHT, AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS 10-20 MPH SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. RESIDUAL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY MAY INHIBIT STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY,
EXCEPT SOME 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACK LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
20S TO MID 30S WITH BRISK CONDITONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE NBM PROBS FOR >35 MPH GUSTS ARE MAINLY
BELOW 20% IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX STRONG WINDS DOWN WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS ON EASTER. WE RAISED GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH BLENDING THE
NBM/NBM90 WINDS/GUSTS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE CHILLY EARLY SPRING AIR MASS.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS AN INCH OR LESS MAY OCCUR IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS ON
TUE AND IT WILL REMAIN BRISK. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACK
PARK MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK WITH ONE MORE COOL DAY
BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED OUR
FORECAST AREA, WORKING TO TURN WINDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
WEST. CHAOTIC CLOUD COVER HAS FORCED LOW, MID, AND HIGH-LEVEL
CEILINGS THIS MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THEM UP LATER TODAY.
BEFORE THAT, HOWEVER, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL SNEAK THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE PRIMARY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUCH THAT CEILINGS, PARTICULARLY AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF
BRIEFLY SLIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT ONCE
THIS SWIFTER BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THESE LOW-LEVEL CEILINGS
WILL BREAK AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
A LARGELY DRY DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. MOST SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT TERMINALS LOOK TO FALL
WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE 06Z CYCLE, SO PROB30S WERE
INCLUDED ACCORDINGLY. AND, DUE TO THE FAST APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM, WINDS THAT BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING WILL
SWIFTLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME BREEZY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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