041
FXUS61 KALY 041105
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO INCREASED FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY OUTSIDE OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2) COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ON TUESDAY,
WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MARINE AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WITH WARMING ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
ALONG THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN
NATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL BACK TO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S FOR
MOST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WHERE
SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR EVEN A FEW FLURRIES. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AND COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SPARSE FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING
OF THIS RAIN IS MAINLY FROM 5AM TO 2PM FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) COULD BE IN PLACE
FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, BUT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO MAINLY RANGE
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF ANY RIVER
FLOODING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK NEAR
HINCKLEY WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, A WEAK LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RESPONSE
LOOKS TO SET UP AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD BRING A
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. SOME
COATINGS TO LOCALLY 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON NON
PAVED SURFACES, SOME LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS COULD OCCUR ON SOME
AREA ROADWAYS TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RESUMES.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY CHAOTIC SKY SHOWN ON INFRARED
SATELLITE. SOME OVERNIGHT CLOUDS HAVE ERODED COURTESY OF DRY
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND AS
A RESULT OF A HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD, BUT WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING, ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THE PREVIOUS. FOR THE MOST PART, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS AT KALB AND KGFL THIS MORNING. INFRARED SATELLITE ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPOS WERE THEREFORE INCLUDED AT
THESE TWO SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THESE CLOUDS
SCOUR OUT. CEILINGS LOOK TO BREAK FOR ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND BEGIN TO
LOWER ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT OF THE IMPENDING SYSTEM. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES, THOUGH THESE WILL BE HIGHLY SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR AND IF THEY WILL
CROSS TERMINAL BOUNDARIES. PROB30 GROUPS WERE THEREFORE ADDED TO
CONVEY THE POTENTIAL. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE LAST 6-10 HOURS OF THE 12Z PERIOD SO ADDITIONAL
PROB30S WERE INCLUDED. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT WORST WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THESE TWO PERIODS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE ESPECIALLY TO START THE PERIOD, BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KT. BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME BREEZY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page