325
FXUS61 KALY 041838
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
238 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INTO
THIS EVENING THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
2) COOLER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS INCREASING, WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. LATEST CAMS MAINLY
FOCUSING ON AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, WHICH IS WHERE POPS
ARE HIGHEST(30-40%). AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ELSEWHERE THOUGH. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS > 1500 FT IN THE S. GREENS TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO
LIMITED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS IN SE CANADA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN TYPICAL SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND S-N ORIENTED VALLEYS. A ~3-5 PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, SPREADING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS OUR
REGION WILL NOT GET INTO A TRUE WARM SECTOR, SO THERE IS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW T-STORMS WITH ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~100 J/KG) WELL NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY TONIGHT
AND WELL SOUTH/EAST LATE SUN MORNING. THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT EARLY TO MID MORNING, THEN EXITING BY
AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY WILL STILL SEE RAIN INTO
EARLY SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING. QPF IS IN THE 0.25-0.60"
RANGE, WHICH SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO IMPACTS.
LEVELS ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT HINCKLEY MAY CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
WHILE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR INTO THE W.
ADIRONDACKS SUN NIGHT INTO MON, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY.
A MORE VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
LOOKS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON INTO
TUE. DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS, SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH
RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUE, ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION ON MAINLY GRASSY
SURFACES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A COATING
TO INCH OF SNOW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WED, WITH THE
COLDEST STRETCH MON-TUE NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -3 STDEV BENEATH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A GUSTY NW BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER TOO. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S MON AND LOWER
30S TO MID 40S TUE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S MON NIGHT AND AROUND 20F TO LOWER 30S TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
STRUGGLES TO HANG ON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WARM FRONT QUICKLY
APPROACHING. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO
MVFR CIGS AFTER AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. KPOU HANGS ONTO VFR A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL AROUND 03Z. WITH THE WARMING ALOFT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION TONIGHT THAT COULD CROSS
TERMINAL BOUNDARIES. HIRES GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE 23Z TO 2Z TIMEFRAME FOR KGFL AND KALB
SHOWN IN A TEMPO. THE TIMING OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KPOU
AND KPSF LOOKS TO BE LATER IN THE 4Z TO 9Z TIME FRAME SHOWN IN
THE PROB30. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
THE TERMINALS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSES THE REGION DUE TO A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES
THEREFORE IFR CIGS AND LOWERED VIS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KALB TREND TOWARDS IFR CIGS AROUND 13Z
UNTIL THE BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES RETURNING MVFR TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KPSF BECOME IFR
AROUND 15/16Z AND AND REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS RANGE
FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER 10 KNOTS.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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