872
FXUS61 KALY 050610
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
RAIN AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
2) BRISK AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
3) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN WHICH WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4-8AM FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FROM 8AM TO NOON FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100- 200 J/KG) COULD BE IN PLACE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT BUT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO MAINLY RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THIS RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY TO CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE RESPONSE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING ALL SNOW, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BRISK AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RESPONSE WILL LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX. SOME COATINGS TO LOCALLY 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON NON PAVED SURFACES, SOME LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS
COULD OCCUR ON SOME AREA ROADWAYS TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RESUMES. SOME SHOWERS COULD RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK PENDING THE LOCATION OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT HAVE FORCED CEILINGS TO AROUND 1-3 KFT. RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT STILL REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF
ANY TERMINALS, CLOSELY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT, BUT SHOULD
ARRIVE BY ABOUT 12Z AT GFL. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
SHIELD MAY OCCUR AT GFL AND ALB, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
ALTERED BY THESE. CONVERSELY, IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE RAIN SHIELD AT KPOU AND KPSF WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES CEILINGS MAY FALL
TO 400-900 FT. WITH DECREASING WINDS AT BOTH OF THESE SITES,
VISIBILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE IMPACTED COURTESY OF FOG
FORMATION.
WITH THE RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY STAND TRUE AT GFL AND ALB OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF PERIODS OF POTENTIAL MODERATE RAINFALL THAT COULD FORCE
CEILINGS INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. POU AND PSF WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE IFR CATEGORY WITH PERSISTENT LOW CEILINGS, BUT MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR VISIBILITY. BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN, DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TO ALLOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO THE VFR CATEGORY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST AND ULTIMATELY THE NORTHWEST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO START WILL
RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT, DROPPING BELOW OR JUST AROUND 10
KT BEFORE AND WITH THE MAIN RAIN BAND. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15 TO 25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...12
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