642
FXUS61 KALY 051046
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
RAIN AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
2) BRISK AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
3) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN WHICH WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4-8AM FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FROM 8AM TO NOON FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100- 200 J/KG) COULD BE IN PLACE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT BUT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO MAINLY RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THIS RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY TO CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE RESPONSE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING ALL SNOW, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BRISK AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RESPONSE WILL LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX. SOME COATINGS TO LOCALLY 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON NON PAVED SURFACES, SOME LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS
COULD OCCUR ON SOME AREA ROADWAYS TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RESUMES. SOME SHOWERS COULD RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK PENDING THE LOCATION OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING COURTESY OF LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT POU AND PSF DUE TO MISTY/FOGGY CONDITIONS.
PER THE LATEST SCANS OF THE KENX RADAR, THE STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION, SWIFTLY APPROACHING GFL. THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN SPATIAL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION, GRADUALLY IMPACTING ALB, THEN PSF, AND POU. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CEILING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE RAIN, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BIT OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAIN THAT COULD BRING IFR CEILINGS AT ALB, POU, AND PSF UP TO
MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS THAT MAY RE-MOISTEN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND FORCE THE
RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS HERE. IN THIS CASE, GFL WOULD ALSO SEE
CEILINGS FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED TO
ALLUDE TO THESE CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY.
BEHIND THE RAIN AND CAUSING COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY, IF NOT RAPIDLY, IMPROVE SUCH THAT VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. DURING THIS TIME,
VARIABLE/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL THEREFORE INCREASE FROM
LARGELY 10 KT AND BELOW TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 TO
25 KT.
HIGHLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ABOUT TONIGHT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCES OF IMPACTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LIES AT PSF WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED
TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...12
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