264
FXUS61 KALY 051837
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
237 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLIER TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO FASTER MOVEMENT OF A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN IS RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK.
2) BRISK AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
3) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN
HAS RESULTED IN SOME RIVER RISES, WITH MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING
IN A LIMITED AREA ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT HINCKLEY
RESERVOIR AND KAST BRIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO SOME AREAS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCES SNOW SHOWERS COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S BY EARLY MON MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY -1 TO -2 STDEV DURING THIS TIME, SO HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A POTENT
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. DUE TO TIMING BEING
MOSTLY AT NIGHT, THERE COULD BE A COATING OF SNOW EVEN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WITH 0.5" TO 1.5" IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANY SNOW IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES,
BUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SNOW SHOWERS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
BRISK AND COLD THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY WED, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON TUE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI INTO SAT. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT, BUT STILL FAIRLY ZONAL, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FRONT
APPROACHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE
JUST INDICATING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH LIMITED
FORCING AND MOISTURE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME THE MILD AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS THE PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. CIGS ARE MAINLY IFR AND MVFR DUE TO LOW STRATUS.
ONCE THE RAIN AND CAUSING COLD FRONT PASSES, CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN TO VFR IN MOST AREAS. KGFL, KALB, AND KPOU WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AND VIS BY THE 20Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME FROM
WEST TO EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT THAT A BIT OF MIXING DUE TO
THE RAIN COULD RE-MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS AND INITIATE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM 0Z TO 3Z AT KALB AND SLIGHTLY
LATER AT KPOU FROM 6Z TO 9Z. THIS IS MENTIONED AT KALB WITH THE
VCSH SINCE LOCATION AND OCCURRENCE WITHIN THE TERMINAL
BOUNDARIES HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE THEN AT KPOU WHERE A PROB30 IS
USED. THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY AREA. HIRES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AT KGFL AND KPSF BRINGING CONDITIONS
BACK DOWN TO MVFR AT KPOU TEMPORARILY. THIS POTENTIAL IS SHOWN
IN A PROB30 AT 6Z. KPSF COULD STAY IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND VARIABLE UNTIL
ABOUT 21Z. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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