166
FXUS61 KALY 052326
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLIER TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO FASTER MOVEMENT OF A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN IS RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK.
2) BRISK AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
3) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN
HAS RESULTED IN SOME RIVER RISES, WITH MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING
IN A LIMITED AREA ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT HINCKLEY
RESERVOIR AND KAST BRIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO SOME AREAS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCES SNOW SHOWERS COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S BY EARLY MON MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY -1 TO -2 STDEV DURING THIS TIME, SO HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A POTENT
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. DUE TO TIMING BEING
MOSTLY AT NIGHT, THERE COULD BE A COATING OF SNOW EVEN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WITH 0.5" TO 1.5" IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANY SNOW IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES,
BUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SNOW SHOWERS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
BRISK AND COLD THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY WED, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON TUE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI INTO SAT. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT, BUT STILL FAIRLY ZONAL, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FRONT
APPROACHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE
JUST INDICATING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH LIMITED
FORCING AND MOISTURE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME THE MILD AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUESDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE
PERSISTENT CIGS OF 4000-6000 FT AGL. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO KALB BETWEEN
02Z-05Z/MON, AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO KPSF DURING SIMILAR TIME.
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS COULD OCCUR.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
8-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT AT KALB AND KPSF. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-17 KT ALL SITES FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT, STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...24
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