642
FXUS61 KALY 060708
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
308 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE THAT WOULD
ALTER THE INTEGRITY OF THE PREVIOUS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
ADJUST TIMING AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF POPS FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS, INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS, AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK GIVE WAY TO
PLEASANT, MODERATING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COURTESY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT HAS
FORCED SCATTERED, LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS A FAIR PORTION OF
THE REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. LATEST SCANS OF THE KENX RADAR
SHOW MODERATE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE ADJACENCY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND NORTHERN
CATSKILLS HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO PRODUCE SURFACE-
REACHING SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY INDICATE THE WEAKENING OF SHOWERS AS THEY GAIN DISTANCE
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A LACK OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT (UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY). THESE LIGHT, HIGHLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY CEASE
UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WILL THEREFORE BE LARGELY DRY BEFORE THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
A CLIPPER-LIKE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD SHOT OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH, OUR EVENTUAL POSITION RELATIVE TO THE SOUTHERLY-
TRACKING LOW, AND THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE RESOLVING ITS TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA BOUNDARY AND OTHERS TRACKING IT RIGHT ACROSS
OUR REGION. THAT SAID, IF THE LOW PASSAGE CUTS DIRECTLY THROUGH
OUR REGION, SOME VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE PRECIPITATION START AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BUT GIVEN INITIAL DRY AIR TO BE
OVERCOME IN VALLEY AREAS, WETBULBING MAY ACTUALLY FORCE AN ALL
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE OR DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALTOGETHER.
EITHER WAY, THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT WILL BE
SNOW.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL WARMING
TRANSITIONS VALLEY AREAS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW OR AROUND FREEZING ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS TOMORROW, SNOW WILL BE ALLOWED TO PERSIST. BY
TOMORROW EVENING, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN DIRECTLY IN THEIR WAKE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5-1.5" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH VALLEY
AREAS SEEING ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO A COUPLE TENTHS. MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATION WILL COME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND,
GIVEN WARMER ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE
ON GRASS SURFACES. THAT SAID, A FEW ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS PARTICULARLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEREFORE,
TAKE CAUTION ON BACK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AID IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND, MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW,
COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WHEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT SAID, WITH PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/TUE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT
KALB/KPSF AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD PASS ACROSS KALB OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AT KPSF UNTIL
12Z/MON, THOUGH NO OR VERY BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT, HIGHEST AT
KALB/KPSF. WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z/TUE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...33
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