411
FXUS61 KALY 061844
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE THAT WOULD
ALTER THE INTEGRITY OF THE PREVIOUS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
ADJUST TIMING AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF POPS FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS, INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS, AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK GIVE WAY TO
PLEASANT, MODERATING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COURTESY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT HAS
FORCED SCATTERED, LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS A FAIR PORTION OF
THE REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. LATEST SCANS OF THE KENX RADAR
SHOW MODERATE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE ADJACENCY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND NORTHERN
CATSKILLS HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO PRODUCE SURFACE-
REACHING SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY INDICATE THE WEAKENING OF SHOWERS AS THEY GAIN DISTANCE
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A LACK OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT (UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY). THESE LIGHT, HIGHLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY CEASE
UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WILL THEREFORE BE LARGELY DRY BEFORE THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
A CLIPPER-LIKE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD SHOT OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH, OUR EVENTUAL POSITION RELATIVE TO THE SOUTHERLY-
TRACKING LOW, AND THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE RESOLVING ITS TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA BOUNDARY AND OTHERS TRACKING IT RIGHT ACROSS
OUR REGION. THAT SAID, IF THE LOW PASSAGE CUTS DIRECTLY THROUGH
OUR REGION, SOME VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE PRECIPITATION START AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BUT GIVEN INITIAL DRY AIR TO BE
OVERCOME IN VALLEY AREAS, WETBULBING MAY ACTUALLY FORCE AN ALL
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE OR DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALTOGETHER.
EITHER WAY, THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT WILL BE
SNOW.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL WARMING
TRANSITIONS VALLEY AREAS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW OR AROUND FREEZING ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS TOMORROW, SNOW WILL BE ALLOWED TO PERSIST. BY
TOMORROW EVENING, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN DIRECTLY IN THEIR WAKE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5-1.5" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH VALLEY
AREAS SEEING ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO A COUPLE TENTHS. MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATION WILL COME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND,
GIVEN WARMER ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE
ON GRASS SURFACES. THAT SAID, A FEW ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS PARTICULARLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEREFORE,
TAKE CAUTION ON BACK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AID IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND, MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW,
COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WHEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT SAID, WITH PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON
THE KENX RADAR SUGGEST KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED
MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON LEFTOVER
FROM WEAK LAKE EFFECT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. DUE TO
LIMITED COVERAGE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS POTENTIAL IS SHOWN IN A TEMPO. KPOU
REMAINS SOUTH OF THESE SHOWERS WITH VFR VIS AND CIGS. A PERIOD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AFTER 7Z
BEFORE SUNRISE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
SNOWFALL BUT COULD START AS RAIN AT KPOU. KPOU AND KALB COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION FIRST (10Z-13Z),THEN KPSF AND KGFL 13Z-17Z. WITHIN THE
SNOW SHOWERS, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL
THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 17Z. THIS IS SHOWN IN A PROB30.
WINDS HOLD FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET WITH SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 6Z BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN
TOMORROW LATE MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW SHIFT MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page