300
FXUS61 KALY 061847
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
247 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, AND LOWERED TEMPS UP TO A COUPLE DEGREES WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AROUND. FOR TOMORROW, SOME
MODEST INCREASES MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR
FORECAST MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO A COATING
UP TO 2" OF SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES, BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL NEVERTHELESS BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
2) TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:45 PM EDT...OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT, WHILE IN THE LOW-LEVELS COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WHERE THERE IS SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
MAKING IT TO THE SFC WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND 15-20
DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO 40S (VALLEYS). BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER, WITH WIND GUSTS
RANGING FROM AROUND 20-30 KT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING TOWARDS SUNSET, AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, BY LATE TONIGHT,
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR/ALONG I-90
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WON'T HAVE A TON OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ON THE W/NW FLANK OF THE SFC LOW WILL PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR AND DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS, BUT SOME RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX IN FOR VALLEY AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A GENERAL 1-3" IS
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH A
COATING TO A HALF INCH FOR VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. WITH MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THAT SAID, A FEW SLICK
SPOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING, SO TRAVELERS SHOULD
STILL PLAN FOR A FEW EXTRA MINUTES ADDED TO THE AM COMMUTE
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WE WENT NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NBM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW GIVEN A SIMILAR
SETUP TO TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.
TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SFC HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A 1038 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BENEATH
UPPER CONFLUENCE TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING CENTERED OVERHEAD BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL EFFECTIVELY RADIATE INTO THE 10S TO 20S, WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, AND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALSO LOOK BREEZY WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS
TRACKING TO OUR W/NW AND THE SFC HIGH LINGERING OFF THE EAST COAST.
GIVEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EARLY SPRING DEEP BL MIXING,
WE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE THE NBM WED/THU AND LOWERED DEW
POINTS EACH AFTERNOON. WE ALSO INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES FRIDAY EVENING OR NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR W/NW, HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. GIVEN THAT THE BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR REGION, FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY NOW, WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AM DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
QUICKLY BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A VERY PLEASANT SPRING WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO 60S (VALLEYS) BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON
THE KENX RADAR SUGGEST KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED
MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON LEFTOVER
FROM WEAK LAKE EFFECT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. DUE TO
LIMITED COVERAGE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS POTENTIAL IS SHOWN IN A TEMPO. KPOU
REMAINS SOUTH OF THESE SHOWERS WITH VFR VIS AND CIGS. A PERIOD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AFTER 7Z
BEFORE SUNRISE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
SNOWFALL BUT COULD START AS RAIN AT KPOU. KPOU AND KALB COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION FIRST (10Z-13Z),THEN KPSF AND KGFL 13Z-17Z. WITHIN THE
SNOW SHOWERS, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL
THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 17Z. THIS IS SHOWN IN A PROB30.
WINDS HOLD FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET WITH SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 6Z BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN
TOMORROW LATE MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW SHIFT MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...53
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