823
FXUS61 KALY 070713
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOW PROBABILITIES STILL EXIST FOR HAZARDOUS IMPACTS RESULTING
FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN INCREASING TRENDS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL REGION, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. PROBABILITIES FOR BRIEF, 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN THESE AREAS ARE MAXIMIZED AT 10-30%, MAKING IT A VERY
LOW THREAT. THAT SAID, SHOULD LOCALIZED, HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OCCUR, HEAVIER RATES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
POSE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO
GREATLY INTERSECT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES, IF AT ALL.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE THAT WOULD ALTER THE INTEGRITY
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL POSE A 10-30% CHANCE
OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL REGION FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
2) NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDED ALMOST ON ALL SIDES WITH SURFACE
LOWS AND WAVES BENEATH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND AN EMBEDDED,
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WHOSE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER STRINGS TOGETHER A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK AND ONE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR/ALONG A COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRAILING BEHIND THE WESTERN NEW YORK LOW. THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH AND EAST
FURTHER INTO NEW YORK STATE AND THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN
MID-ATLANTIC, THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD, DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND ULTIMATELY MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY WESTERN NEW YORK LOW THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL FORM BETWEEN THE TWO
LOW CENTERS, ENHANCING SURFACE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENCROACHES FURTHER TO PROVIDE THE UPPER-LEVEL
COMPONENT OF LIFT.
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ACTUALLY
BEGIN TO REACH THE GROUND (LATEST OBS INDICATE LATEST
REFLECTIVITY SCANS ARE MERE VIRGA) BY DAYBREAK AS FORCING IS
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT, THE PASSAGE OF THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, AND THE PASSAGE OF A NARROW BAND OF FGEN AT
850 HPA. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INITIAL LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME BY THE INCREASED
VERTICAL MOTION AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. THAT
SAID, HIRES GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO INDICATE THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. STRONG UVVS INTERSECTING A MOIST OR MOISTENING DGZ
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL REGION, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, AND
SOUTHERN GREENS SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE COME BRIEFLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY (0.5-1" PER HOUR) BY MID TO LATE
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK, THOUGH
PRESENT, SURFACE INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE THOUGHT THAT AN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NUMBER OF THESE COULD CLOSELY RESEMBLE,
THOUGH NOT QUITE MEET CRITERIA OF, SNOW SQUALLS. NOW, THAT SAID,
LATEST HREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES AND VISIBILITIES UNDER 0.5 STATUTE MILES ONLY RANGE FROM
ABOUT 10-30% WITH THE GREATEST OF THESE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE DRIVING FACTOR. BUT, AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RATHER MILD, DRIVING THE
EXPECTATION THAT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT RESULT ON
ROAD SURFACES, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY EXPECTED AS A RESULT
OF THIS SYSTEM, WE FELT IT PERTINENT TO MENTION THIS AS BRIEF,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS. THAT SAID, WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND ALREADY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN A
COLD-ADVECTING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PATCHES OF SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS SO IT IS
STILL IMPORTANT FOR MOTORISTS TO BE CAUTIOUS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS GUSTY WINDS COULD POSE AT LEAST SOME REDUCTION TO
VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
EVEN IF ROADWAYS ARE NOTHING BUT WET. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO ALIGN, AT LEAST WIDELY, WITH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES TODAY AS THIS IS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT WILL SEE AN END IN SNOW SHOWERS BY ABOUT
THE MIDDLE TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE
ANYWHERE FROM 1-2" IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4"
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS,
BUT THESE WERE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THOSE HEAVIER SHOWERS, A QUICK 0.5-1.5" IS POSSIBLE, BUT
MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE SEEN ON GRASSY SURFACES.
ELSEWHERE, ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY,
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, THERMAL PROFILES BECOME A BIT MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLUDING TO THE FACT THAT SOME RAIN COULD BE MIXED IN WITH SNOW.
SO WE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF A LIGHT MIX AND EVEN SOME PLAIN
RAIN IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN, HOWEVER, IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AS A LACK OF A SUFFICIENT WARM NOSE WILL
MITIGATE MELTING AND WETBULB EFFECTS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND IS
BUILD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WHICH, IN TANDEM WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH, WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TIME AS A RESULT. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT
WILL CHALLENGE THE STEADY STATE OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE A
PASSING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH AND THE PASSAGE OF ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME TO ACTUALLY SEE PRECIPITATION REACH THE SURFACE.
REGARDLESS, HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS WELL WITH A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FORCING A STRONGER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY REINFORCE PLEASANT
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
WELL ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE PERFECT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/WED...CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER KALB/KPSF/KGFL BETWEEN 08-13Z/TUE
WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE, HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 AT THESE SITES. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KPOU SO
HAVE TRENDED THIS SITE DRY THROUGH 12Z/TUE. AN ADDITIONAL BAND
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS MAINLY KALB/KGFL/KPSF
BETWEEN 13-17Z/TUE WHERE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. A SECOND PROB30 WAS USED FOR THIS PERIOD. LIGHTER
AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT KPOU SO INCLUDED JUST A
VCSH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN REDUCTIONS OF CIGS OR VSBYS. BEHIND
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH CIGS RETURNING
TO VFR. ANOTHER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD PASS NEAR KPSF BUT
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLEARING OCCURS THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10
KT AFTER 12Z/TUE. WINDS ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WIND BEGINS TO DIMINISH AFTER
00Z/WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...33
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